Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies moved little on Thursday as traders remained on edge over progress towards more trade deals with the United States, while weak economic prints from China and Australia also weighed. The dollar steadied in regional trade with focus squarely on the progress of a sweeping tax and spending bill through Congress, with the House of Representatives set to vote on the bill in the coming hours. The dollar also faces a major test from key upcoming payrolls data, which is now widely expected to factor into the Federal Reserve’s plans to cut interest rates. Yuan flat after soft PMI; US seen relaxing some chip export controls on China. The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair was flat after a private purchasing managers index reading on the services sector read softer-than-expected for June, although it still grew for a thirtieth consecutive month. The yuan also showed little reaction to statements from major chip design firms that the U.S. had relaxed some restrictions on sales to China, effective immediately. The move marked an improvement in Sino-U.S. trade relations, and comes just weeks after the two agreed to a framework trade deal. Dollar ticks higher with tax bill, nonfarm payrolls in focus The dollar index and dollar index futures rose 0.1% each in Asian trade, although they remained close to an over three-year low hit earlier this week. Focus was squarely on key nonfarm payrolls data for June, which is due later on Thursday, for more cues on the world’s largest economy. The reading comes amid heightened speculation over interest rate cuts by the Fed, with any signs of an outsized cooling in the labor market expected to spur more easing. Trump also repeated his calls for lower interest rates this week, while attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Focus was also on the passage of a controversial tax and spending bill through Congress. The House of Representatives was last seen considering the bill for a vote, which Trump said could take place later in the day. Concerns around the bill are largely tied to its potential impact on U.S. government debt and fiscal health. Fears of a rapid increase in debt had sparked a selldown in U.S. Treasuries, pressuring the dollar in recent weeks. Broader Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range, amid continued focus on more trade deals with the U.S. before a July 9 deadline for Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs. While the U.S. and Vietnam announced a trade deal on Wednesday, markets were awaiting trade deals with larger economies, such as India, and Japan. A host of recent reports showed Washington was still struggling to hash out trade deals with the two.
• Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday, reversing sharp gains from the prior session after data showing an unexpected build in U.S. inventories raised some concerns over sluggish fuel demand. Focus was also squarely on a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which is set to increase output again during an upcoming weekend meeting. Both contracts soared between 2.5% and 3% on Wednesday after Iran’s suspension of cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog ramped up fears of a reescalation in hostilities in the Middle East. But the gains did not hold, especially as markets remained on edge over increasing supplies elsewhere, while concerns over slowing demand also weighed. Focus on Thursday is on a barrage of key U.S. labor readings for more cues on the world’s largest fuel consumer. U.S. oil inventories grew by 3.85 million barrels (mb) in the week to June 27, government data showed on Wednesday, contrasting expectations for a draw of 3.5 mb and reversing course from an outsized 5.84 mb draw in the prior week. The print was accompanied by a vastly outsized 4.19 mb build in gasoline inventories, which raised questions about just how strong fuel demand will be this summer season. Focus was now on key nonfarm payrolls data for June, due later on Thursday. The print is expected to show further cooling in the labor market, pointing to some economic cracks in the world’s biggest fuel consumer. Oil markets are also on edge over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, with Washington having signed only a few deals ahead of a July 9 deadline. The OPEC+ will meet over the weekend, with recent reports showing that the cartel plans to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. While the hike is in a similar margin as those seen in July, June, and May, it still highlights the cartel’s plans to steadily unwind two years of sharp production cuts. This unwinding in part is to offset the economic impact of prolonged weakness in oil prices, as well as to punish overproduction within the OPEC’s ranks. Increased OPEC+ production also comes amid calls by Trump for the cartel to increase production and keep prices low. Trump has also urged U.S. oil producers to ramp up output.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Thursday intraday high of US$3359.97/oz and low of $3327.49/oz. Gold is up by % at US$3356.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3354-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3311-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3311-3331-3354 and 3372-3386-3404

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US$36.56/oz and low of US$35.85/oz settle down by up by 1.438% at US$36.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 35.90-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.90-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$66.78/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.52/bbl, and settled up by 2.88% to close at US$66.69/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.50-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.90-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1746/EUR, a high of US$1.1809/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0516% to close at US$1.1797/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1790-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1745-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday low of US$1.3562/GBP, a high of US$1.3751/GBP, and settled the day down 0.786% to close at US$1.3629/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3645-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3670-1.3850 with targets at 1.3645-1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday an intra‐day low of JPY143.30/USD an intraday high of 144.23/USD, and settled the day up by 0.150% at JPY143.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 144.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20 and 144.50-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 143.50-140.00 with targets of 146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.