Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies edged higher on Tuesday, stabilizing after sharp overnight losses triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of steep new tariffs on key trade partners, including Japan and South Korea. Sentiment improved slightly after Trump signaled flexibility on the August 1 deadline, saying that the U.S. remained open to further negotiations. Investors also turned their focus to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is widely expected to deliver a rate cut later in the day. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.2% in Asia hours after sharp gains overnight. US Dollar Index Futures were also trading 0.2% lower. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday began sending tariff letters, notifying 14 countries that sharply higher duties will take effect on August 1. The list included major U.S. trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, along with smaller exporters like Serbia, Thailand, and Tunisia. The letters outlined a 25% levy on all goods from Japan and South Korea, while some nations face up to 40% tariffs. The South Korean won and the Japanese yen saw sharp losses overnight, with their respective pairs USD/KRW and USD/JPY dropping nearly 1% each. The moves stabilized on Tuesday as Trump said that the August 1 deadline was "not 100% firm,” and that he was open to alternate proposals from trade partners. Markets are widely anticipating the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, potentially the central bank’s third rate cut this year.
• Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after rising almost 2% in the previous session as investors assessed new developments on U.S. tariffs and a higher-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday began telling trade partners, which included major suppliers South Korea and Japan as well as smaller U.S. exporters like Serbia, Thailand and Tunisia, that sharply higher U.S. tariffs will start August 1, though he later said that deadline was not 100% firm. Trump’s tariffs have prompted uncertainty across the market and concerns they could have a negative effect on the global economy and, consequently, on oil demand. However, there are some signs current demand remains strong, particularly in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, which has supported prices. A record 72.2 million Americans were projected to travel more than 50 miles (80 km) for Fourth of July vacations, data from travel group AAA showed last week. Investors were bullish heading into the holiday period with data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Monday showing money managers raised their net-long futures and options positions in crude oil contracts in the week up to July 1. "Prompt demand remains healthy on the back of seasonal factors. The question remains if forward demand will maintain to absorb the larger-than-expected supply from OPEC+," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research. Other signs of higher demand were seen in India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, with government data reporting fuel consumption in June was 1.9% higher than a year ago. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding the 411,000-bpd hikes they made for the prior three months The decision removes nearly all of the 2.2 million-bpd of voluntary cuts the group enacted. They are set to approve an increase of about 550,000 bpd for September when it meets on August 3, according to five sources familiar with the matter, which would unwind all of the cuts. However, actual output increases have been smaller than the announced levels so far and most of the supply has been from Saudi Arabia, analysts said.
• The dollar has fallen victim to the impact of tariffs denting its safe-haven status, but Wells Fargo strategists say the ride lower is unlikely to last, insisting talk of the greenback’s demise is "greatly exaggerated." Fundamentals, including robust U.S. economic growth powered by President Donald Trump’s fiscal agenda, are poised to rescue the world’s reserve currency. The greenback has endured a “challenging repricing period this year as markets adjust to rapid policy change,” Wells Fargo strategists said in a recent note, with tariff and budget uncertainty whipsawing both equities and fixed income. The selloff has been hard to miss: “Although much ink has been spilled in 2025 around the U.S. Dollar Index’s more than 10% year-to-date drop (through June 30, 2025), the greenback is down less than 4% from the end of last September—the point at which market participants started pricing in President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory,” they added. But reports of the dollar’s demise are “greatly exaggerated.” As the strategists point out, “the greenback remains the linchpin of global trade and finance and is far from becoming irrelevant.” Despite the volatility, the dollar is still trading near its 10-year average, and Wells Fargo expects it to “stabilize at a modestly higher level later this year and through 2026 as fundamental drivers begin to reassert themselves.”. The fundamentals, which have been clouded in tariff-driven uncertainty, are likely to prevail as Trump’s fiscal agenda begins to take shape, underpinned the economy. Wells Fargo expects “relatively strong U.S. economic growth as tax cuts and the cumulative effect of deregulation spur a moderate growth recovery overriding the negative economic impact from tariffs and tighter immigration controls.” That growth, menawhile, should keep U.S. interest rates elevated relative to peers, especially as the Fed remains hesitant to cut while the ECB and Swiss National Bank have already moved aggressively to ease. Wells Fargo also cautions against betting on the end of dollar dominance, preferring to "avoid making portfolio adjustments based on speculation that the dollar may be in danger of losing its global status anytime soon." The hit to the deep-seated advantages of the U.S. system, from rule of law to financial market liquidity, are likely to be limited.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Monday intraday high of US$3342.39/oz and low of $3296.33/oz. Gold is up by 0.0075% at US$3336.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3331-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 33120-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3290-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3311-3331-3354 and 3372-3386-3404.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$37.21/oz and low of US$36.13/oz settle down by down by 0.425% at US$36.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.60-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.90-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$67.38/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.68/bbl, and settled up by 3.322% to close at US$66.96/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.10-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.90-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1658/EUR, a high of US$1.1789/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.595% to close at US$1.1706/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday low of US$1.3574/GBP, a high of US$1.3656/GBP, and settled the day up 0.0065% to close at US$1.3596/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3600-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3645-1.3850 with targets at 1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY144.17/USD an intraday high of 144.95/USD, and settled the day down by 0.284% at JPY144.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 146.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20 and 144.50-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 145.50-140.00 with targets of 145.20-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 140.00.