Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies fell on Wednesday as investors cautiously awaited more trade tariff announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, while they also weighed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate pause and a mild increase in China’s consumer inflation. Regional currencies slid sharply at the start of the week when President Trump announced higher tariff rates for key trading partners. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday began sending tariff letters, notifying 14 countries that sharply higher duties will take effect on August 1. Of the 14 countries, nine were in Asia. The tariff letters outlined a 25% levy on all goods from Japan and South Korea, while some smaller nations face up to 40% tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and would soon roll out long-promised duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Moreover, he plans to release a list of seven countries “having to do with trade” on Wednesday morning, and additional countries in the afternoon, Trump said in a social media post late Tuesday, but did not provide further details. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its interest rates steady on Wednesday, as widely expected, but signaled that a rate cut could be on the horizon if inflationary pressures continue to ease. In China, data showed that the consumer price index edged up slightly in June, as increased government subsidies and a modest easing of trade tensions provided a mild boost to consumer spending.
• Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, seeing limited safe haven demand as uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and interest rates pushed traders towards the dollar. U.S. copper prices were an outlier among major metals, rallying to record highs after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports of the red metal. London copper futures sank on Tuesday and Wednesday. Broader metal prices also broadly retreated amid pressure from a stronger dollar, which largely maintained its rebound from recent three-year lows. Gold was close to its weakest level in nine days, as uncertainty over Trump’s trade tariffs did not translate into haven demand for the yellow metal as seen earlier. Traders were seen pivoting into a heavily discounted dollar, which sustained a rebound from recent three-year lows amid growing bets that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the near-term, following strong payrolls data from last week. Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs also kept traders biased towards the dollar, as the president began issuing letters outlining steep tariffs against several major economies this week. The Fed has warned that Trump’s tariffs at their intended levels could push up U.S. inflation, lessening the chances of interest rate cuts in the coming months. Strength in the dollar weighed on broader metal prices, with the precious metals sector being vulnerable to profit-taking after logging strong gains through June.
• Oil prices edged down on Wednesday after rising to two-week highs in the previous session, as investors awaited new developments on U.S. tariffs amid expectations of rising crude inventories in the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff delay provided some hope to major trade partners Japan, South Korea and the European Union that deals to ease duties could still be reached, while bewildering some smaller exporters such as South Africa and leaving companies with no clarity on the path forward. Trump pushed back Wednesday’s previous deadline to August 1, a date he said on Tuesday was final, declaring: "No extensions will be granted." Trump added that he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and soon introduce long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, broadening a trade war that has rattled markets worldwide. There is concern that the tariffs could curb demand for oil, and while there was strong travel demand during the U.S. holiday weekend on July 4, data from industry sources showed possible crude inventory builds in the U.S. of around 7.1 million barrels, though fuel products’ stocks were lower.Official data from U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to be out at 1430 GMT later today. On the longer term supply side, the U.S. will produce less oil in 2025 than previously expected as declining oil prices have prompted U.S. producers to slow activity this year, the Energy Information Administration forecast on Tuesday in a monthly report. The world’s largest oil producer is projected to produce 13.37 million barrels per day of oil in 2025, versus last month’s forecast of 13.42 million bpd, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook report.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Tuesday intraday high of US$3344.68/oz and low of $3287.08/oz. Gold is down by 1.132% at US$3301.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3300-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 33120-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3290-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3311-3331-3354 and 3372-3386-3404.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday its intraday high of US$36.68/oz and low of US$36.27/oz settle down by down by 0.0843% at US$36.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.60-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.90-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday high of US$67.95/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.39/bbl, and settled up by 0.502% to close at US$67.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.10-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.90-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.16816/EUR, a high of US$1.1764/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.143% to close at US$1.1723/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday low of US$1.3524/GBP, a high of US$1.3645/GBP, and settled the day down 0.111% to close at US$1.3581/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3600-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3645-1.3850 with targets at 1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY144.17/USD an intraday high of 144.95/USD, and settled the day down by 0.284% at JPY144.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 146.50-140.00 with targets of 145.20-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 140.00.