Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies were largely muted on Thursday as investors digested fresh trade tariff salvos from U.S. President Donald Trump, while uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook further contributed to marginal moves. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.1% in Asia hours, extending mild losses. President Trump on Wednesday announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective Aug 1, claiming that the measure was aimed at boosting the domestic copper industry. Earlier on Wednesday, he also announced that the reciprocal tariff on Brazil would rise to 50% from 10%. Lula responded, warning that any new tariffs would be met with retaliatory actions. Trump has started sending tariff letters to key trading partners this week, and has already announced 25% duties on goods from South Korea and Japan, among others. While recent tariff threats have had a limited impact on broader markets, traders remain wary of potential future trade escalations. Fed minutes dull July rate cut expectations. Just a few Fed officials at the June 17–18 meeting backed a rate cut this month, while most remained concerned about inflation risks from Trump’s tariff-driven trade policy, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. The majority of policymakers expect rate cuts to be appropriate sometime later this year.
• U.S. dollar edged marginally higher Wednesday, close to an over 2-week high versus major peers after U.S. President Donald Trump increased trade tensions, indicating plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. The safe-haven dollar has received a boost after the U.S. president said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and would soon roll out long-promised duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Moreover, he announced plans to release a list of seven countries “having to do with trade” on Wednesday morning, and additional countries in the afternoon, in a social media post late Tuesday without providing further details. This followed his decision on Monday to send letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, unveiling sharply higher tariffs on imports into the United States. Away from the tribulations surrounding trade policies, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its latest policy meeting later in the session, with investors keen for more insight into how policymakers see interest rates evolving over the rest of the year. At its gathering in June, the U.S. central bank chose to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, arguing that a wait-and-see approach continued to be appropriate as more clarity emerged around the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the broader economy. “The consensus expectation is probably that two members, Bowman and Waller, will have flagged their dissent at the meeting before delivering dovish comments to the media a few days later. But if the minutes show a greater dovish front, then the dollar could take a hit as the bar for data to justify a summer cut would be lower,” said analysts at ING, in a note. In Europe, EUR/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.1703, with the single currency weighed after the U.S. president said he’s drafting a tariff letter as the negotiations between the U.S. and the EU continue GBP/USD gained 0.2% to 1.3595, with sterling benefiting from the trade angst as the U.K. is one of the very few countries that has already signed a trade deal with teh Trump administration. In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.1% higher to 146.70, and USD/CNY edged 0.1% higher to 7.1813, after data showed that China’s consumer price index edged up slightly in June, as increased government subsidies and a modest easing of trade tensions provided a mild boost to consumer spending.
• Oil prices eased on Thursday as the latest tariff announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump were perceived by market participants as a threat to global economic growth, however signs of strong U.S. gasoline demand limited losses. On the demand side, macro uncertainty has led to a more cautious buying environment, particularly in Asia, said analytics firm Kpler in a note, while noting that geopolitical risk premiums have faded with the Israel-Iran truce holding. On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the U.S., after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Earlier, Trump announced plans about tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen of letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse U.S. suppliers South Korea and Japan.
• As policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs, only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, the minutes released on Wednesday showed. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil. Providing some support to prices, U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said. Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating ’sustained expansion’ in trade activities from last year, J.P. Morgan said in a client note. Additionally, there is doubt that the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members and the United Arab Emirates’ move to a larger quota.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Wednesday intraday high of US$3316.75/oz and low of $3282.55/oz. Gold is up by 0.337% at US$3313.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3331-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 33120-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3312-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3331-3354 and 3372-3386-3404.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$36.74/oz and low of US$36.25/oz settle down by down by 1.018% at US$36.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 36.60-33.10, targeting 36.50-37.00 and 37.80-38.25-38.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 36.90-39.60 with a stop loss above 40.00 targeting 36.10-35.60-35.30 and 35.00-34.85-34.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$67.91/bbl, an intraday low of US$66.73/bbl, and settled up by 0.102% to close at US$67.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.50-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 66.90-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1688/EUR, a high of US$1.1728/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.025% to close at US$1.1718/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.3563/GBP, a high of US$1.3619/GBP, and settled the day down 0.005% to close at US$1.3579/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3600-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3645-1.3850 with targets at 1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY146.24/USD an intraday high of 147.17/USD, and settled the day down by 0.145% at JPY146.29/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.20-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 146.50-140.00 with targets of 145.20-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 140.00.