Daily Market Lookup

• Asian currencies were largely flat on Monday after weekly losses, as investors remained sidelined amid a flurry of U.S. trade tariff announcements, while they assessed Singapore’s strong GDP data and positive trade figures from China. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged 0.1% higher in Asia hours. Dollar Index Futures also gained 0.1%. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1. The EU said it will extend its pause on retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. until early August, while pushing for a negotiated resolution. Last week, Trump announced new tariffs on a number of countries, including Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil, along with a 50% tariff on copper, all effective August 1. Trump’s latest threats also feature a 10% tariff threat targeting countries that align themselves with the BRICS bloc. Even though recent tariff threats have not had a large impact on broader market moves, traders refrained from placing large bets amid uncertainty. Data on Monday showed that Singapore’s economy grew more than expected in the second quarter of 2025 amid resilient manufacturing and electronics exports despite tariff-related uncertainty. Still, the government flagged significant uncertainty and downside risks for the global economy in the second half of 2025 due to unclear U.S. tariff policy. In China, data showed that the country’s trade balance rose above expectations in June, boosted by stronger-than-forecast exports amid mutual tariff cuts with the U.S. Both the onshore USD/CNY and offshore USD/CNH Chinese yuan pairs also remained unchanged, in line with the broader trend.
• Gold prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Monday, extending recent gains as caution over more trade tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump boosted appetite for safe havens Haven demand was also buoyed by reports that Trump planned to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating a conflict with Russia. Still, gains in gold were limited by resilience in the dollar, which advanced ahead of key consumer price index data due on Tuesday. Silver was a major outperformer among metal prices, hitting a near 14-year high. Gold extended its gains from last week after Trump over the weekend announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the European Union, the latest in a salvo of tariffs announced over the past week. Trump’s tariffs will become effective from August 1, leaving major economies limited time to hash out more trade deals with Washington. Trump indicated that he will not extend the August 1 deadline. The U.S. president had over the past week announced tariffs against several other major economies, including 25% duties on both Japan and South Korea, 50% tariffs on Brazil, and a 50% tariff on copper imports. His announcements ramped up concerns over the economic disruption from increased tariffs, spurring some haven demand for gold. Caution over the Russia-Ukraine conflict also aided gold, after Axios reported on Sunday that Trump will send offensive weapons to Ukraine to aid it in the long-running war. This came after Trump over the weekend expressed disappointment in Russian President Vladimir Putin over his reluctance towards establishing a ceasefire. Still, gold’s gains were in part limited by the yellow metal marking a strong run-up so far in 2025. But other precious metals clocked strong gains and multi-year highs in recent weeks. While platinum futures fell 0.6% to $1,461.40/oz, they were, along with silver, sitting at over 10-year peaks. Among industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3% to $9,694.45 a ton, taking some support from data that showed top importer China’s shipments of the red metal increased in June. Overall Chinese trade data also read positive, with export growth beating expectations on a deescalating trade conflict with the United States. Strength in the dollar, which sustained a recovery from recent three-year lows, limited overall gains in metal markets. The dollar rose 0.1% in Asian trade. Focus this week is on U.S. consumer price index inflation data for June, which is due on Tuesday. The print is expected to show an increase in core and headline inflation, with focus largely on whether Trump’s tariffs contributed to higher prices.
• Sticky inflation is likely to give the Federal Reserve more impetus to leave interest rates unchanged, despite calls from the president that the central bank cut rates immediately.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Friday intraday high of US$3368.55/oz and low of $3321.73/oz. Gold is up by 0.9373% at US$3355.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3371-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3310-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3354-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3372-3386-3404.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$38.51/oz and low of US$36.89/oz settle down by up by 3.823% at US$38.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 39.60-33.10, targeting 39.50-39.90-40.50 and 41.10-41.40-42.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 29.00. Sell in between 39.60-42.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 38.90-38.55-37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$67.60/bbl, an intraday low of US$65.50/bbl, and settled up by 2.510% to close at US$67.53/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 67.50-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 66.00-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on an intraday low of US$1.1664/EUR, a high of US$1.1713/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0812% to close at US$1.1690/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1690-1.1650-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.1790-1.1835-1.1890 and 1.1950-1.1990.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3532/GBP, a high of US$1.3584/GBP, and settled the day down 0.508% to close at US$1.3491/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3640-1.3040 with a target of 1.3710-1.3750-1.3790 and 1.3850-1.3890 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3710-1.3850 with targets at 1.3645-1.3600-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY146.12/USD an intraday high of 147.51/USD, and settled the day up by 0.835% at JPY147.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 147.20-140.00 with targets of 145.20-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 140.00.