Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies fell on Thursday as the dollar steadied after a turbulent session driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, while the Australian dollar led declines after a jump in unemployment fueled expectations of rate cuts. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.2% in Asia hours. It settled 0.3% lower on Wednesday after sharp losses during the day. Asian currencies found some respite overnight as the dollar weakened, but retreated on Thursday amid U.S trade tariff concerns U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday rejected claims that he was planning to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell but did not rule out the possibility, reiterating his criticism of Powell for failing to lower interest rates. This comes after Trump and his allies ramped up calls for Powell’s removal this week, sparking concerns over the Fed’s independence. Overnight, the dollar and equity markets declined, while long-dated U.S. Treasury yields climbed. In Asia, currencies swung widely overnight, with most turning lower on Thursday. The Japanese yen weakened, with the USD/JPY pair rising 0.5%, as attention turned to election polls suggesting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition may lose its upper house majority. Data on Thursday showed that Australia’s labor market added far fewer jobs than anticipated in June, while an unexpected rise in unemployment pointed to a continued slowdown in hiring activity. A weakening labor market, alongside easing inflationary pressures, may provide the Reserve Bank of Australia with extra room to cut rates. Policymakers may also find leeway in loosening monetary policy to support the economy amid tariff headwinds.
• Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday amid some improvement in risk appetite after U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed fears that he will prematurely fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Broader metal prices were also subdued amid pressure from a stronger dollar, which steadied near a three-week high following sticky inflation data for June. But haven demand for gold remained upbeat, especially amid growing uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs, which are set to take effect in just over two weeks. Platinum and silver also largely maintained their outperformance over gold. Trump on Wednesday said it was “highly unlikely” he would fire Fed Chair Powell, although it still remained a possibility if there was evidence of fraud in the Fed’s ongoing renovation project. Concerns over Powell’s firing were fueled by Trump ramping up his attacks on the Fed Chair, while several members of Trump’s Republican allies were also seen calling for Powell’s immediate removal. Trump claimed that Powell has been too late in cutting U.S. interest rates, demanding that he do so immediately to prevent economic damage. Powell and several Fed policymakers, on the other hand, have signaled that interest rates will remain unchanged until the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs becomes clear Still, Trump’s downplaying of his crusade against Powell helped marginally improve market sentiment, which in turn sapped some near-term demand for gold and boosted U.S. equities. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged later this month, especially as consumer and producer inflation data released this week showed prices remaining sticky in June. This notion supported the dollar, keeping it near three-week highs after the greenback logged steady gains over the past week. Retail sales and jobless claims data due later on Thursday is also expected to provide more cues on the U.S. economy.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, reversing declines in the previous three sessions, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data from the world’s top oil consumers and signs of easing trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their U.S. tariff rates would go out soon, and said on Wednesday that he would probably put a blanket 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries. New agreements with Indonesia and Vietnam were announced this week. Trump also offered renewed optimism about prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and hinted that a trade deal with India was very close, while an agreement could possibly be reached with Europe as well. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, a steeper decline than forecast for a 552,000-barrel draw, suggesting stronger refinery activity, tighter supply, and increased demand. However, larger-than-expected builds in gasoline and diesel inventories capped price gains. This raised concerns of weakening demand from summer travel, ANZ analysts said in a note on Thursday. The latest snapshot of the U.S. economy by the central bank, released on Wednesday, showed activity picked up in recent weeks. However, the outlook was "neutral to slightly pessimistic" as businesses reported that higher import tariffs were putting upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, China data showed growth slowed in the second quarter, but not by as much as previously feared, in part because of front-loading to beat U.S. tariffs, easing fears over the state of the world’s largest crude importer’s economy Data also showed that China’s June crude oil throughput was up 8.5% from a year ago, implying stronger fuel demand.

Gold – XAU

Gold on its Tuesday intraday high of US$3377.22/oz and low of $3320.10/oz. Gold is up by 0.304% at US$3347.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3340-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3310-3300 and 3287-3274-3244. Buy in between 3328-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3372-3380 and 3386-3404-3420.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$38.07/oz and low of US$37.48/oz settle down by down by 1.131% at US$37.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 37.80-33.10, targeting 38.25-38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 38.40-42.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$65.81/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.40/bbl, and settled up by 2.510% to close at US$65.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.00-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1561/EUR, a high of US$1.1721/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.542% to close at US$1.1638/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1650-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday low of US$1.3364/GBP, a high of US$1.3485/GBP, and settled the day up 0.285% to close at US$1.3417/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3340-1.3040 with a target of 1.3400-1.3470-1.3510 and 1.3550-1.3600-1.3710 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3400-1.3850 with targets at 1.3360-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday an intra‐day low of JPY147.54/USD an intraday high of 149.01/USD, and settled the day up by 0.775% at JPY148.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 148.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.