Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies strengthened on Thursday, with the Japanese yen and the South Korean won leading gains after a major U.S.-Japan trade deal bolstered optimism about potential similar pacts before the looming tariff deadline. Both top-gaining currencies traded at their highest levels in two weeks, poised for a fourth straight session of gains. Still, investor sentiment in Japan remained cautious amid ongoing political uncertainty, following the ruling coalition’s defeat in last week’s upper house elections and speculation over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s potential resignation. President Trump announced on Wednesday that Washington and Tokyo have struck a broad trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a previously proposed 25%. In return, the U.S. secured a massive $550 billion Japanese investment in the U.S. economy. The yen extended gains for the fourth straight day with the USD/JPY pair trading 0.4% lower as of 04:07 GMT. A day earlier, local media reports stated that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to formally announce his resignation soon. However, later on Wednesday, Ishiba denied that he had decided to quit despite a bruising upper house election defeat. The South Korean won’s USD/KRW fell 0.6% to two-week lows on Thursday as the U.S.-Japan trade deal stoked hopes that other countries would also reach agreements before Trump’s August 1 deadline.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over U.S. trade negotiations that would ease pressure on the global economy and a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Both benchmarks were little changed on Wednesday as markets monitored developments in U.S.-European Union trade talks, following President Donald Trump’s tariff deal with Japan. The agreement lowers duties on auto imports and spares Tokyo from new levies in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans Two European diplomats said on Wednesday that the EU and the U.S. are moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, potentially paving the way for another major trade agreement following the Japan deal. On the supply side, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also fell by 1.7 million barrels to 231.1 million barrels, nearly double expectations for a 908,000-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 109.9 million barrels - still near their lowest seasonal level since 1996, ANZ analysts said in a note. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained in focus. Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, discussing further prisoner swaps, though the two sides remain far apart on ceasefire terms and a possible meeting of their leaders Separately, foreign oil tankers were temporarily barred from loading at Russia’s main Black Sea ports due to new regulations, two industry sources said on Wednesday, effectively halting exports from Kazakhstan through a consortium partly owned by U.S. energy majors. The U.S. energy secretary said on Tuesday that the U.S. would consider sanctioning Russian oil to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EU on Friday agreed its 18th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the price cap for Russian crude.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$3438.90/oz and low of $3381.47/oz. Gold is down by 1.303% at US$3386.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3390-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3418-3408-3390 and 3380-3372-3354-3328. Buy in between 3380-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3390-3400-3424-3434 and 3445-3453-3470.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$39.50/oz and low of US$39.02/oz settle down by down by 0.0611% at US$39.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 38.90-33.10, targeting 38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 40.50-43.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 38.55-38.25-37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday high of US$65.57/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.56/bbl, and settled down by 0.689% to close at US$65.21/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.20-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1710/EUR, a high of US$1.1774/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0961% to close at US$1.1764/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday low of US$1.3514/GBP, a high of US$1.3583/GBP, and settled the day up 0.453% to close at US$1.3577/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3550-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3645-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790-1.3850 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3550-1.3850 with targets at 1.3360-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday an intra‐day low of JPY146.10/USD an intraday high of 147.20/USD, and settled the day down by 0.108% at JPY146.40/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 146.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.