Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies traded flat on Monday as traders braced for an action-packed week featuring interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve, renewed U.S.–China trade talks, and an impending tariff deadline set by President Donald Trump. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.1% in Asia hours. Dollar Index Futures were largely muted. President Trump announced a U.S.–EU framework deal on Sunday. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., down from the 30% originally proposed. Meanwhile, top U.S. and Chinese officials were scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday to resolve trade tensions and reportedly seek a three-month extension of their tariff truce. According to a South China Morning Post report, both sides are looking to extend the tariff truce before it expires on August 12, with no plans to impose new duties or escalate tensions. Despite easing global trade tensions, investors remained cautious ahead of the August 1 deadline, when countries would see higher tariff rates if a deal was not reached. Both Fed, BOJ expected to hold rates steady. The BOJ is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday amid global trade certainty and domestic political flux. Analysts believe that the U.S.-Japan trade deal signed last week would provide some room to policymakers to raise rates again later this year. Still, investor sentiment in Japan remained cautious amid ongoing political uncertainty, following the ruling coalition’s defeat in last week’s upper house elections and speculation over Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s potential resignation. The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair was little changed after sharp gains last week. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed is also expected to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday this week, with markets awaiting comments from central bankers to gauge further policy outlook.
• Gold prices held firm in Asian trade on Monday following three consecutive days of declines, as a new trade deal between the United States and the European Union eased risk appetite and curbed demand for the safe‑haven asset. Traders also exercised caution ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision due this week, where the central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged. Gold saw two consecutive weekly declines on Friday after a key U.S.-Japan trade eased global trade tensions. The U.S.–EU agreement announced Sunday imposed a 15% tariff on most European goods entering the U.S., half of the previously threatened rate, helping avert a full‑scale trade conflict and boosting market sentiment. Meanwhile, top U.S. and Chinese officials were set to meet in Stockholm on Monday to discuss extending their tariff truce by three months. A South China Morning Post report stated that both sides have no plan to impose new duties ahead of the August 12 deadline. This optimism weighed on gold demand even as the dollar remained subdued. Analysts noted that progress toward a trade truce lowered uncertainty, drawing funds into equities and reducing bullion’s attraction. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s two‑day meeting ending Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its benchmark rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range. Investors will be watching for any shifts in tone about the timing of potential rate cuts. Markets also await key U.S. economic data releases later in the week, including July jobs figures and PCE price index data. Metal markets subdued; platinum jump The US Dollar Index remained subdued on Monday after sharp weekly losses. Silver Futures were largely muted at $38.368 per ounce, while Platinum Futures jumped 1.6% to $1,445.05/oz.
• Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States clinched a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand The US-European Union trade deal and a possible extension in the US-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said. Sunday’s US-EU framework trade pact sets an import tariff of 15% on most EU goods, half the threatened rate. The deal averted a bigger trade war between two allies that account for almost one-third of global trade and could crimp fuel demand. Also set for Monday is a meeting in Stockholm of senior US and Chinese negotiators aiming to extend before an August 12 deadline a truce holding off sharply higher tariffs. Oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest in three weeks weighed down by global trade concerns and expectations of more oil supply from Venezuela. State-run oil company PDVSA is readying to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses, once U.S. President Donald Trump reinstates authorisations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said. Though prices were up slightly on Monday, gains were limited by the prospect of OPEC+ further easing supply curbs. A market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies is set to meet at 1200 GMT on Monday. It is unlikely to recommend altering existing plans by eight members to raise oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, four OPEC+ delegates said last week, though another source said it was too early to say. ING expects OPEC+ will at least complete the full return of 2.2 million barrels per day of the additional voluntary supply cuts by the end of September. That would work out to a supply hike in September of at least 280,000 barrels per day. However, there is clearly room for a more aggressive hike. The producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels. JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July on year, while global oil stocks rose 1.6 million bpd. In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis said on Sunday they would target ships of companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, in what they called a fourth phase of military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$3438.90/oz and low of $3381.47/oz. Gold is down by 1.303% at US$3386.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3354-3500 keeping stop loss closing above 3500, targeting 3328-3312-3300 and 3288-3278-3267. Buy in between 3328-3220 with risk below 3200 targeting 3354-3372-3380 and 3390-3400-3424-3434.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$39.17/oz and low of US$37.93/oz settle down by down by 2.32% at US$38.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 38.10-33.10, targeting 38.90-39.50 and 39.90-40.50-41.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 33.00. Sell in between 40.50-43.00 with a stop loss above 42.00 targeting 38.55-38.25-37.80 and 37.20-36.10-35.60-35.30.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$66.40/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.73/bbl, and settled down by 1.629% to close at US$64.77/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 65.20-72.00 with stop loss at 72.00; targeting 65.40-64.10 and 63.40-62.80-62.00. Buy above 65.40-62.00 with risk daily closing below 62.00, targeting 66.00-67.12 and 67.90-68.60-69.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1702/EUR, a high of US$1.1774/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0961% to close at US$1.1742/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1745-1.1990, targeting 1.1600-1.1570 and 1.1545-1.1470-1.1450 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1410 with risk below 1.1400 targeting 1.1650-1.1690-1.1790 and 1.1835-1.1890-1.1950.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3514/GBP, a high of US$1.3527/GBP, and settled the day down % to close at US$1.3439/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3550-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3645-1.3710 and 1.3750-1.3790-1.3850 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3550-1.3850 with targets at 1.3360-1.3300-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3160-1.3100 with a stop loss of 1.3850.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY146.80/USD an intraday high of 147.93/USD, and settled the day down by 0.108% at JPY147.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 147.50-149.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 146.60-146.10-145.20 and 144.70-143.90-143.00. Long positions above 146.50-140.00 with targets of 148.90-149.35-149.90 with stops below 140.00.