Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies extended gains on Friday as the dollar was set for a weekly drop over U.S. fiscal deficit concerns, while the Japanese yen strengthened after strong inflation data raised odds of another Bank of Japan rate hike. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.3% in Asia hours and was set to fall more than 1% for the week The Japanese yen gained on Friday, with its pair USD/JPY falling 0.4%. The currency was set to gain nearly 1.5% against the dollar this week. Data on Friday showed that Japan’s core consumer inflation accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in April 2025, surpassing market expectations of 3.4% and marking the fastest pace in over two years. A more refined measure of inflation, the core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, also edged up to 3.0% in April from 2.9% in March. This metric is closely monitored by the BOJ as it provides insights into underlying inflation trends. The recent acceleration in inflation coincides with substantial wage hikes secured during Japan’s spring labor negotiations. In response to these developments, market analysts are increasingly anticipating that the BOJ may consider another interest rate hike by July. The dollar was set for a weekly decline after the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill on Thursday. Dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the legislation includes substantial tax cuts, increased military and border enforcement funding, and significant reductions to green energy incentives and social programs. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is projected to add approximately $3.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade This follows Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating debt levels. With a weaker greenback, Asian currencies continued their upward trend, although losses were capped by persisting trade uncertainty.
• Ongoing speculation of potential currency accords has become an increasingly dominant foreign exchange theme, according to Bank of America Securities, while fiscal policy is no longer the tailwind it once was for the U.S. dollar. With the G7 Finance Ministers meeting underway, speculation is similarly running high on some form of statement on foreign exchange, and potential currency accords in particular, said analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated May 22 Given the developed market countries involved, the bar for meaningful policy change is exceedingly high. Actual currency accords among these countries at this time would be a big surprise, but the mere talk has thrown some cold water on already damp U.S. dollar sentiment. The naming of actual currency manipulators based on the U.S. Treasury report’s typical criteria remains unlikely. That said, this administration has a tendency of aggressive action, and they could use the report to dial up the heat on some countries amid trade talks. Additionally, Congressional debate/voting around the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill has encouraged further term-premium to be built into the U.S. Treasury curve, as the deficit outlook deteriorates. The U.S. dollar has increasingly traded lower along with the steepening U.S. Treasury curve, as the “sell U.S.” theme is persisting. Investors increasingly see U.S. fiscal policy as a headwind for the dollar.
• Oil prices dropped for a fourth consecutive session on Friday and were set for their first weekly decline in three weeks, weighed down by renewed supply pressure from another possible OPEC+ output hike in July. For the week, Brent has fallen 1.9%, and WTI has dropped 2.5%, following two weeks of gains. Both contracts touched their lowest in more than one week on Thursday after a Bloomberg News report that OPEC+ was considering another large production increase at a meeting on June 1. Increasing output by 411,000 barrels a day (bpd) for July was among the options discussed, but no final agreement has yet been reached, the report said, citing delegates. They expect that OPEC+ will go ahead with a 411,000 bpd supply increase for July and currently forecast Brent to average $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, May and June. The supply tailwind offset jitters earlier this week triggered by a report saying Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and new sanctions announced by the EU and Britain on Russia’s oil trade. A large crude oil build in the U.S. also weighed on oil prices. As traders brace for a flood of increased supply in coming months from OPEC+, U.S. crude oil storage demand has surged in recent weeks to levels similar to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from storage broker The Tank Tiger. On Friday, the market will watch for U.S. oil and gas rig count data from Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) that is used as an indicator for future supply. The market is also closely watching U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations which could determine the future supply of Iranian oil. The fifth round of talks will take place in Rome on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday its intraday high of US$3365.84/oz and low of $3287.01/oz. Gold is up by 1.927% at US$3357.55/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 3358-3420 keeping stop loss closing above 3420, targeting 3344-3320-3300-3287 and 3274-3244-3227. Buy in between 3345-3201 with risk below 3200 targeting 3358-3370 and 3386-3404-3420-3437.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US$33.52/oz and low of US$32.87/oz settle down by up by 1.234% at US$33.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 33.10-27.10, targeting 33.90-34.30 and 34.60-35.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 27.00. Sell in between 33.50-35.60 with a stop loss above 34.00 targeting 32.50-31.90-30.90 and 30.50-29.90-29.20.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$61.66/bbl, an intraday low of US$59.85/bbl, and settled up by 1.538% to close at US$61.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.00-64.00 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 60.25-59.80-59.25 and 55.50-54.75-54.00. Buy above 60.50-52.00 with risk daily closing below 52.00, targeting 61.50-62.20-63.15 and 63.52-64.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1276/EUR, a high of US$1.1374/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.689% to close at US$1.1356/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.0800), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0717. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1420-1.1740, targeting 1.1390-1.1340-1.1300 and 1.1250-1.1200 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1035. Buy above 1.1350-1.1010 with risk below 1.1010 targeting 1.420 and 1.1450-1.1470.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday low of US$1.3406/GBP, a high of US$1.3541/GBP, and settled the day up 0.871% to close at US$1.3534/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.3570-1.3040 with a target of 1.3600-1.3645-1.3700 and 1.3750-1.3790-1.1384 with a stop loss closing below 1.3040. Sell in between 1.3600-1.1385 with targets at 1.3570-1.3550-1.3510 and 1.3470-1.3400-1.3360-1.3300 with a stop loss of 1.3185.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday an intra‐day low of JPY143.79/USD an intraday high of 144.39/USD, and settled the day up by % at JPY143.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 143.90-148.00 with risk above 149.00 targeting 145.20-144.50-143.90 and 143.00-142.50-141.90. Long positions above 143.00-138.00 with targets of 143.90-146.10-146.60-147.40 and 148.10-148.90-149.35 with stops below 138.00.