Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Tuesday, with the Indian rupee recovering sharply from recent record lows after Washington and New Delhi announced a long-awaited trade deal Other Asian currencies also firmed marginally, but were nursing losses in recent sessions, especially after the dollar rallied on U.S. President Donald Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairmad. Trump announced the deal in a social media post. But he did not provide any further details on the agreement, such as when it will take effect and just what trade concessions India will make. The central bank also hiked its growth and inflation forecasts for the year, stating that inflation was now expected to remain above its 2% to 3% annual target until at least 2027. While the central bank did not explicitly signal future rate hikes, it did acknowledge that markets were pricing in at least one more raise this year. Governor Michele Bullock also noted that Tuesday’s hike was driven by the RBA viewing monetary policy as not being restrictive enough, and that the bank will continue to work towards bringing down inflation and maintaining maximum employment. Markets were seen ramping up expectations for more rate hikes by the RBA, especially with inflation seen remaining above its forecasts this year. Broader Asian currencies drifted higher on Tuesday, but were nursing deep losses in the past two sessions, especially as the dollar recovered. The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell about 0.1% in Asian trade, but were sitting at an over one-week high as markets priced in a less dovish outlook for monetary policy under Warsh. Strength in the dollar pressured more regional units, with the Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair trading back above 155 yen. The yen was also pressured by uncertainty over whether Japanese authorities will intervene to support the battered currency.
• Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, with silver and platinum also advancing as precious metals steadied from two days of outsized losses. Gold prices had slumped as low as $4,400/oz on Monday, losing nearly $1,200/oz from a record high hit last week. Metals were slapped with a heavy dose of profit-taking after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the central bank. While the nomination cleared out a major point of uncertainty for markets, sapping some safe haven demand, Warsh is also seen as a less dovish pick than markets were expecting. Still, signs of a gold recovery appeared to be in play late-Monday, with spot gold ending well above its intraday lows. "Further stabilisation will be determined by the mentality of the retail market. Physical demand from this sector has been strong in recent months and could provide a strong backdrop to the selling from leveraged trades in the institutional market," ANZ analysts wrote in a note, while noting that the fundamentals behind gold still remained strong. Focus is now on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due this Friday, for more definitive cues on the world’s largest economy and the path of interest rates. Beyond monetary policy, cooling geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran also sapped safe haven demand for gold this week. Tehran and Washington will resume talks over the former’s nuclear ambitions on Friday, following repeated warnings from Trump over potential military action against the Middle Eastern country. Recent losses in copper were far less pronounced than those seen in precious metals, as the outlook for copper demand-- amid growing energy generation and data center construction-- remained upbeat. ANZ analysts noted that Chinese consumers had stepped in to buy copper at discounted prices last week, with the country also seen stocking up on the red metal ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China is the world’s largest importer of copper, with demand in the country expected to remain robust as Beijing doles out more stimulative policies.
• Oil prices fell on Tuesday, easing for a second day, as market participants weighed the possibility of a de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, while a firmer dollar placed greater downside pressure on prices. Iran and the U.S. are expected to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Turkey, officials from both sides told Reuters on Monday, and Trump warned that with big U.S. warships heading to Iran, bad things could happen if a deal was not reached. Talks with the U.S. should be pursued to secure Iran’s national interests as long as "threats and unreasonable expectations" are avoided, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X on Tuesday. Weighing on prices further, the U.S. dollar index hovered near its highest in more than a week. A stronger greenback hurts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers. On the trade front, Trump on Monday unveiled a deal with India that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases and lowering trade barriers Trump announced the deal on social media following a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, noting that India had agreed to buy oil from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. Some analysts said they were expecting volatile price movements this month.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$5597.99/oz and low of $5098.39/oz. God is down by 0.886% at US$5376.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4872-5100 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4800-4772-4750 and 4710-4668-4630. Buy in between 4806-4630 with risk below 4600 targeting 4874-4900-4960 and 4990-5040-5100-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$87.89/oz and low of US71.34/oz settle down by 4.33% at US$79.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 109.10-100.60, targeting 110.00-111.15-112.00-113.20 and 114.00-115.00-115.90-117.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 90.00. Sell in between 110.00-117.70 with a stop loss above 118.00 targeting 1091.0-108.00-107.10-106.50 and 105.50-103.80-102.90-101.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$63.93/bbl, an intraday low of US$61.17/bbl, and settled down by 2.86% to close at US$62.07/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 61.90-65.70 with stop loss at 65.00; targeting 63.80-63.00-62.50-61.90 and 61.20-60.60-60.10-59.40 Buy above 61.20-57.90 with risk daily closing below 57.40, targeting 61.90-62.50-63.00-63.80 and 64.50-65.15-65.70-66.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1775/EUR, a high of US$1.1874/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.491% to close at US$1.1789/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1850-1.1990, targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1755-1.1690 and 1.1640-1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1790-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1890-1.1920-1.1950 and 1.1990-1.2010-1.2035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3714/GBP, a high of US$1.3714/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0130% to close at US$1.3695/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3700-1.3200 with a target of 1.3670-1.3700-1.3725 and 1.3760-1.3800 with a stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3670-1.3820 with targets at 1.3660-1.3410-1.3375-1.3305-1.3245 and 1.3200-1.3140-1.3115-1.3080 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.54/USD an intraday high of 155.75/USD, and settled the day up by 0.473% at JPY155.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.60-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.00-155.40-154.60 and 154.00-153.60-153.20-152.65. Long positions above 154.00-148.00 with targets of 155.00-155.40-155.90-156.50 and 157.10-157.60-158.20-158.60 with stops below 148.00.