Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar rose Monday, adding to the strong gains seen at the end of last week after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to become the new Federal Reserve chair. Trump’s pick of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair sent precious metals, along with other risky assets, tumbling late last week, while the dollar bounced strongly, clawing back its losses from earlier last week. While investors widely see Warsh as being in favor of cutting rates, they also noted that he has been critical of the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, which could result in a reduction of money supply in the market The main focus for this week was on the January jobs report, but the data was delayed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday due to the partial government shutdown. Data released earlier in the session indicated that German retail sales rose 0.1% in December compared with the previous month, an improvement from the drop of 0.5% seen in the previous month. Additionally, eurozone manufacturing activity data improved in January, with the HCOB manufacturing PMI climbing to 49.5, from 48.8 the prior month, nearly climbing out of contraction territory. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting later in the week GBP/USD traded marginally lower at 1.3658, with the Bank of England also expected to stand pat at its policy meeting on Thursday . Takaichi talked up the benefits of a softer currency during a recent campaign speech, which somewhat contrasted with signals from her administration that warned against prolonged weakness in the currency. A string of Japanese officials, including Takaichi herself, had previously warned markets against outsized moves in the yen, sparking concerns that government intervention was imminent. Elsewhere, USD/CNY traded largely unchanged at 6.9463, showing little reaction to mixed purchasing managers index data for January, while AUD/USD fell 0.3% to 0.6943, with focus squarely on the conclusion of a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, where the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Bets on a RBA hike were fueled chiefly by data showing a resurgence in Australian inflation through the second half of 2025.
• Gold prices rose back above key levels in Asian trade on Wednesday as signs of renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran drummed up safe haven demand for bullion. The yellow metal extended gains after rebounding sharply from recent losses on Tuesday, with dip-buying also remaining in play after an over $1,000 price wipeout last week. Concerns over rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran were a major driver of haven demand, especially after overnight reports showed the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian sea. Separately, Iranian gunboats were seen approaching a U.S.-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The two events somewhat undermined comments from Tehran and Washington that they will hold talks this Friday. News of the talks had offered markets some relief and dented haven demand for gold. Recent losses in gold were driven chiefly by bets that U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination for head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will be less dovish than markets were hoping. This sparked a sharp increase in the dollar, which in turn pressured metal markets. Gold was also open to profit-taking after surging to a record high of nearly $5,600/oz last week. But despite recent losses, gold was still trading up nearly 15% so far in 2026. ANZ analysts said in a recent note that the fundamentals behind gold price strength– haven demand, physical buying, and central bank purchases– still remained in place. The brokerage said that gold was likely to continue benefiting from central bank demand, while geopolitical and fiscal risks will continue to underpin haven demand. Silver is also expected to benefit from its dual role as a precious and industrial metal.
• Oil prices rose sharply in Asian trade on Wednesday as reports of growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed up concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Oil also benefited from industry data showing U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly shrank by a large amount in the prior week, as extreme cold weather in the country disrupted production. Overnight reports showed the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Separately, a group of Iranian gunboats were seen approaching a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents occurred just ahead of scheduled talks between Washington and Tehran this week. But Iranian officials were also seen demanding that the talks– scheduled for Friday– be narrowed to two-way negotiations on nuclear issues, sparking doubts over whether the dialogue will even take place. U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened more military action against Iran if it did not accept U.S. demands to curb its nuclear program. Tehran had warned of bitter retaliation against any U.S. aggression. Any increased military action in the Middle East stands to potentially disrupt oil supplies from the region– a notion that supported oil prices in recent sessions. Oil was also buoyed by industry data showing a substantial, unexpected draw in U.S. inventories. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. inventories shrank 11.1 million barrels (mb) in the week to January 30, compared to expectations for a build of 0.7 mb. The API data usually heralds a similar trend from official inventory data, which is due later in the day. The outsized draw comes as cold weather in the U.S. disrupted oil production across the country, while also disrupting exports from the gulf coast. Disruptions in U.S. supplies had also helped boost oil prices in recent weeks.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$5597.99/oz and low of $5098.39/oz. God is down by 0.886% at US$5376.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4872-5100 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4800-4772-4750 and 4710-4668-4630. Buy in between 4806-4630 with risk below 4600 targeting 4874-4900-4960 and 4990-5040-5100-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$89.15/oz and low of US79.43/oz settle up by 7.03% at US$79.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 109.10-100.60, targeting 110.00-111.15-112.00-113.20 and 114.00-115.00-115.90-117.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 90.00. Sell in between 110.00-117.70 with a stop loss above 118.00 targeting 1091.0-108.00-107.10-106.50 and 105.50-103.80-102.90-101.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$63.91/bbl, an intraday low of US$60.85/bbl, and settled up by 2.70% to close at US$63.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 63.90-65.70 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 63.00-62.50-61.90 and 61.20-60.60-60.10-59.40 Buy above 63.20-57.90 with risk daily closing below 57.40, targeting 63.80 and 64.50-65.15-65.70-66.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1778/EUR, a high of US$1.1828/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.221% to close at US$1.1815/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1850-1.1990, targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1755-1.1690 and 1.1640-1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1790-1.1110 with risk below 1.1100 targeting 1.1890-1.1920-1.1950 and 1.1990-1.2010-1.2035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3649/GBP, a high of US$1.3714/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.230% to close at US$1.3691/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3700-1.3200 with a target of 1.3725 and 1.3760-1.3800 with a stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3725-1.3820 with targets at 1.3700-1.3670-1.3640-1.3600 and 1.3550-1.3490-1.3410 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.54/USD an intraday high of 155.75/USD, and settled the day up by 0.473% at JPY155.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.60-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.00-155.40-154.60 and 154.00-153.60-153.20-152.65. Long positions above 154.00-148.00 with targets of 155.00-155.40-155.90-156.50 and 157.10-157.60-158.20-158.60 with stops below 148.00.