Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday as market holidays across most of the region kept trading volumes thin, while the dollar caught some bids before a swathe of economic cues due this week. Gains in the dollar also came amid thin U.S. trading volumes, following a Monday holiday in U.S. markets. This in turn made for few trading cues for Asian markets. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, with Chinese markets set to remain closed until next week. The dollar index and dollar index futures rose slightly in Asian trade, extending overnight gains. Focus this week is squarely on a swathe of U.S. economic cues, including the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due on Wednesday. The minutes come after the Fed left interest rates unchanged and warned that risks to inflation and the labor market still remained. Since then, payrolls and consumer inflation data offered mixed cues on the world’s largest economy. Industrial production and trade data, due in the coming days, are expected to provide more signals. PCE price index data for December, due on Friday, will be a key reading for markets. The print is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and is widely expected to factor into long-term interest rate projections. The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair fell 0.2%, recovering mildly from steep losses in the prior session after gross domestic product data read substantially weaker than expected for the fourth quarter. The reading raised concerns over slowing Japanese growth, and drummed up expectations of more stimulus measures from Tokyo. The yen also took some support from reports stating that the Bank of Japan was likely to raise interest rates by as soon as April. Among other Asian currencies, the Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair fell slightly after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting showed policymakers remained uncommitted towards raising interest rates further after a 25 basis point hike. But they flagged continued caution over sticky Australian inflation, with any further price increases likely to invite more tightening. The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair was flat but rose further above the 90 rupee point. The rupee took little support from stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data released last week.
• The U.S. and Iran hold indirect talks in Geneva on Tuesday aimed at resolving their long-running nuclear dispute, with little clear indication of compromise as Washington masses a battle force in the region. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will take part in the negotiations, which are being mediated by Oman, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters, alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Yet the U.S. military is simultaneously preparing for the possibility of weeks of operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters. Iran itself began a military drill on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international waterway and oil export route from Gulf Arab states, who have been appealing for diplomacy to end the dispute. Tehran and Washington renewed negotiations on February 6 on their decades-long dispute. Washington and its close ally Israel believe Iran aspires to build a nuclear weapon that could threaten Israel’s existence. Iran says its nuclear programme is purely peaceful, even though it has enriched uranium far beyond the purity needed for power generation, and close to what is required for a bomb. Tehran is acutely aware that a previous attempt to revive talks was under way in June last year when Washington’s ally Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran, and was then joined by U.S. bombers that struck nuclear targets. Tehran has since said it has halted uranium enrichment activity. Since then, Iran’s Islamic rulers have been weakened by widespread street protests, put down at a cost of thousands of lives, against a cost-of-living crisis driven in part by international sanctions that have strangled Iran’s oil income. Unlike last time, the U.S. has now placed what Trump calls a massive naval armada in the region. Washington has sought to expand the scope of talks to non-nuclear issues such as Iran’s missile stockpile. Tehran says it is willing only to discuss curbs on its nuclear programme - in exchange for sanctions relief - and that it will not give up uranium enrichment completely or discuss its missile programme. On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a news conference in Budapest that it was hard to do a deal with Iran, but the U.S. was willing to try. Araqchi on Monday met Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in Geneva to discuss cooperation with the IAEA and technical aspects of the impending talks with the U.S On Tuesday afternoon, Witkoff and Kushner will participate in three-way talks with Russia and Ukraine as Washington attempts to coax Ukraine and Russia into an agreement to end Moscow’s four-year-old invasion of Ukraine

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$5034.69/oz and low of $4965.27/oz. God is up by 0.771% at US$4995.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4900-5182 keeping stop loss closing above 5200, targeting 4880-4850-4800. Buy in between 4880-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 4940-4990-5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US$78.36/oz and low of US74.60/oz settle down by 1.165% at US$76.66/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 73.00-68.50, targeting 74.50-75.30-76.00-77.10 and 78.00-79.00-80.50-82.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 69.00. Sell in between 74.50-82.10 with a stop loss above 82.50 targeting 73.55-73.00-72.10-71.00 and 70.61-70.00-69.15.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$63.67/bbl, an intraday low of US$62.33/bbl, and settled up by 1.037% to close at US$63.56/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 63.50-65.70 with stop loss at 66.00; targeting 62.50-61.90 and 61.20-60.60-60.10-59.40 Buy above 62.50-57.90 with risk daily closing below 57.40, targeting 63.00-63.80 and 64.50-65.15-65.70-66.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1845/EUR, a high of US$1.1874/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.114% to close at US$1.1850/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1920-1.1990, targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1755-1.1690 and 1.1640-1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1890-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1920-1.1950 and 1.1990-1.2010-1.2035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made a intraday low of US$1.3621/GBP, a high of US$1.3661/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.0799% to close at US$1.3621/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3600-1.3200 with a target of 1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 and 1.3760-1.3800 with a stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3660-1.3820 with targets at 1.3700-1.3670-1.3640-1.3600 and 1.3550-1.3490-1.3410 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY152.58/USD an intraday high of 153.66/USD, and settled the day down by 0.0111% at JPY152.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 154.10-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 153.00-152.65-152.10 an 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 153.00-148.00 with targets of 153.80-154.20-155.00-155.90 and 156.60-157.10-157.60-158.20with stops below 148.00.