Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar rose on Thursday, hitting a nearly one-month high, after minutes from the Federal Reserve hinted at possible future rate hikes to fight inflation. At 15:05 ET (20:05 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 97.92, after jumping around 0.6% overnight, climbing off recent lows The minutes of the Fed’s January monetary policy meeting showed that almost all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants supported the decision to hold interest rates steady. However, the minutes also showed officials were divided on the policy outlook, with several indicating interest rates might need to stay higher for longer and some open to further hikes if inflation remains sticky. Higher interest rates generally strengthen the value of the U.S. dollar, as higher borrowing costs mean USD-denominated assets offer higher returns, attracting foreign investment. Thursday’s economic calendar had little effect on the dollar, with the December trade balance widening and weekly initial jobless claims coming in lower than expected. Friday will be the big day for data, with readings on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and U.S. GDP growth on the docket. In Europe, EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower to 1.1766, with the euro bouncing slightly after having taken a knock on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes and following a report European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde plans on leaving before her term ends in October next year. Lagarde has told colleagues she remains focused on her job and she would tell them first if she was about to step down, Reuters reported. GBP/USD slipped 0.4% to 1.3455, with sterling on track for losses of more than 1% this week after a sharp drop in inflation earlier this week pointed at the potential of a rate cut by the Bank of England next month. That said, the minutes of the latest Federal reserve meeting confirmed that the New York Fed did check rates in USD/JPY in January on behalf of the US Treasury and in its role as the fiscal agent of the U.S.. The data reinforced the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias after it raised its cash rate earlier this month, citing persistent inflation and resilient jobs conditions.
• Oil prices rose on Friday, headed for their first weekly gain in three, on growing concerns a conflict may erupt between the U.S. and Iran, after Washington said Tehran will suffer if it does not agree a deal on its nuclear activity in a matter of days. Prices settled at a six-month high on Thursday after U.S. President Trump said "really bad things" would happen if Iran does not come to an agreement regarding a nuclear programme it has said is peaceful but that the U.S. believes is militaristic. Trump set a deadline of 10 to 15 days. Iran, meanwhile, has planned a joint naval exercise with Russia, a local news agency reported, days after temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz for military drills. Iran lies opposite the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula across the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. Conflict in the area could limit oil supplies entering the global market and push up prices. "Market focus has clearly shifted to escalating Middle East tensions after the failure of multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, even as investors debate whether any actual disruption will materialise," Sachdeva added Also supporting oil prices were reports of falling crude oil stocks and limited exports in the world’s biggest oil producing and exporting countries. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels, as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration report showed on Thursday. [EIA/S] Worries about how interest rates in the U.S.- the world’s largest oil consumer - could pan out limited oil price gains. "Recent Fed minutes pointing to steady rates or even the risk of further hikes if inflation stays sticky could cap demand," said Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva. Low interest rates are typically seen as supportive for crude prices. Markets were also mulling the impact of ample supply on prices, with talks of OPEC+ leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April. The oil surplus that was evident in the second half of 2025 continued in January and "is likely to persist", JP Morgan analysts Natasha Kaneva and Lyuba Savinova said in a client note.
• "Our balances continue to project sizable surpluses later this year," they said, adding that meant output cuts of 2 million barrels per day would be needed to prevent excess inventory builds in 2027.

Gold – XAU

Gold on interaday Thursday high of US$5022.17/oz and low of $4958.99/oz. God is up by 0.392% at US$4996.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4990-5182 keeping stop loss closing above 5200, targeting 4990-4960-4900-4880 and 4850-4800-4750-4720. Buy in between 4990-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US$79.46/oz and low of US76.45/oz settle down by 1.634% at US$78.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 73.00-68.50, targeting 74.50-75.30-76.00-77.10 and 78.00-79.00-80.50-82.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 69.00. Sell in between 74.50-82.10 with a stop loss above 82.50 targeting 73.55-73.00-72.10-71.00 and 70.61-70.00-69.15.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$63.67/bbl, an intraday low of US$64.73/bbl, and settled up by 2.74% to close at US$66.64/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 66.90-70.10 with stop loss at 70.10; targeting 62.50-61.90 and 61.20-60.60-60.10-59.40 Buy above 66.10-62.50 with risk daily closing below 63.00, targeting 66.90-67.50-68.00 and 68.85-69.50-70.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1741/EUR, a high of US$1.1806/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.0789% to close at US$1.1772/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1920-1.1990, targeting 1.1850-1.1790-1.1755-1.1690 and 1.1640-1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1890-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600 targeting 1.1920-1.1950 and 1.1990-1.2010-1.2035.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made a intraday low of US$1.3433/GBP, a high of US$1.3516/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.222% to close at US$1.3460/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3500-1.3200 with a target of 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 and 1.3760-1.3800 with a stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3660-1.3820 with targets at 1.3700-1.3670-1.3640-1.3600 and 1.3550-1.3490-1.3410 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY154.53/USD an intraday high of 155.33/USD, and settled the day up by 0.140% at JPY154.96/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 155.10-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 153.00-152.65-152.10 an 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 154.00-148.00 with targets of 153.80-154.20-155.00-155.90 and 156.60-157.10-157.60-158.20with stops below 148.00.