Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday, pulling back from the multimonth highs it touched in the previous session, as investors unwound safe‑haven positions on rising hopes that the Middle East conflict may prove shorter‑lived than initially feared. Improved sentiment was underpinned by a New York Times report on Wednesday that Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had signalled to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency a willingness to explore talks to end the war, citing officials briefed on the matter. The report lifted risk appetite and weighed on the dollar. In afternoon trading, the euro edged up 0.2% to $1.1632, having hit its weakest level since late November on Tuesday. That followed data released on Tuesday that showed euro zone inflation accelerated more quickly than expected in February, before the start of the Iran conflict. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s performance against six others, fell 0.3% to 98.83, having earlier reached its strongest level since November 28. With the Iran war still raging, U.S. economic data on Wednesday took a back seat. The dollar showed little reaction to data showing U.S. private payrolls increased by the most in seven months in February, though data for the prior month was revised sharply lower. Private employment rose by 63,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since July 2025, after a downwardly revised 11,000 increase in January. A report showing U.S. services sector activity surging to more than a 3-1/2-year high in February also had marginal impact on the currency market. The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 56.1 last month, the highest reading since July 2022, from 53.8 in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI easing to 53.5. The options market shows traders are at their most bearish toward the euro in at least a year, having flipped from an overwhelmingly bullish position just six weeks ago. CIBC Capital Markets head of G10 FX strategy Jeremy Stretch said it is all about natural gas prices in Europe. "If there comes to be more of a supply, as well as a price, issue, then obviously that becomes much more problematic for the euro zone. The cost of buying options to sell the euro against the dollar over the next three months relative to the cost of options to buy it is at its largest premium since March last year, according to LSEG data. That reflected a view in the options market that the euro has further to fall. Against the Chinese yuan, the U.S. currency slid 0.4% to 6.8920 in offshore trade, after PMI data for February diverged, with official gauges recording a slump in activity even as a private-sector counterpart blew past estimates.
• Gold prices erased early gains to trade flat on Thursday as the U.S. dollar rebounded after a modest pullback, while the Middle East war supported bullion’s safe-haven appeal. The yellow metal gained 1% in the previous session. The rebound followed a near 5% pullback on Tuesday when a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Geopolitical tensions escalated after the U.S. sank an Iranian warship in international waters. Iran continued to fire missiles into several countries across the region and reportedly targeted critical energy infrastructure. The conflict has deepened fears of a sustained regional war, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets and flock to gold, which is traditionally viewed as a hedge against geopolitical instability and market turbulence. Adding to uncertainty, Tehran dismissed as “pure falsehood” a report that its Ministry of Intelligence had reached out to Washington to negotiate an end to the conflict. The US Dollar Index rose 0.4% during Asian hours after slipping 0.3% overnight. It posted two consecutive sessions of strong gains at the start of the week. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. In other developments, President Donald Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a move seen as rate-cut-friendly by markets.
• Oil prices surged more than 3% on Thursday, extending a rally as the escalating U.S.-Israeli war with Iran raised fears of prolonged disruptions to vital Middle East oil and gas supplies. Crude oil markets remained on edge as they face ongoing risks to supply following the attacks in the Middle East and concerns are centred on the flow of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, ANZ analysts said in a note on Thursday. Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel early on Thursday, sending millions of residents into bomb shelters as the conflict entered its sixth day and just hours after moves to halt the U.S. air assault were blocked in Washington. On Wednesday, a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people, and NATO air defences destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired towards Turkey. Iranian forces have struck oil tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Explosions were reported near a tanker off Kuwait, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. The escalation came as the powerful son of Iran’s slain supreme leader emerged as a frontrunner to succeed him, suggesting Tehran was not about to buckle to pressure, five days after the United States and Israel launched a military campaign that has killed hundreds and convulsed global markets. Iraq, the second-largest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day for lack of storage and an export route, officials told Reuters Qatar, the biggest liquefied natural gas producer in the Gulf, declared force majeure on gas exports on Wednesday, with sources saying a return to normal production volumes may take at least a month. Two oil traders said they held bullish expectations for oil prices as a quick resolution to this war seemed unlikely. At least 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to Reuters estimates based on ship-tracking data from the MarineTraffic platform. Hundreds of other vessels remained outside Hormuz unable to reach ports, shipping data showed. The waterway is a key artery for around a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supply China’s government has asked companies to suspend signing new contracts to export refined fuel, and to try and cancel shipments already committed, industry and trade sources said on Thursday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$5205.96/oz and low of $5084.35/oz. God is up by 0.726% at US$5140.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 5165-5300 keeping stop loss closing above 5300, targeting 5140-5110-5090 and 5040-5024-4990-4960. Buy in between 5160-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US86.81/oz and low of US81.27/oz settle up by 1.716% at US$83.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 82.00-77.00, targeting 83.90-85.00-86.00-86.90-88.20 and 89.00-90.40-91.50-92.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 77.00. Sell in between 83.90-92.20 with a stop loss above 93.00 targeting 82.05-81.00 and 80.10-79.00-77.90-77.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$776.51/bbl, an intraday low of US$72.68/bbl, and settled up by 1.55% to close at US$75.25/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.00-80.00 with stop loss at 80.10; targeting 75.50-74.30-73.00-72.10 and 71.00-70.10-69.00. Buy above 75.10-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00, targeting 76.00-76.60-77.00-78.00 and 78.50-79.35-80.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1574/EUR, a high of US$1.1654/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.139% to close at US$1.1632/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1655-1.1990, targeting 1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1655-1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3302/GBP, a high of US$1.3535/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.034% to close at US$1.3370/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3325-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3200. Sell in between 1.3395-1.3820 with targets at 1.3325-1.3305-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.84/USD an intraday high of 1567.85/USD, and settled the day up by 0.831% at JPY157.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.10-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 153.00-152.65-152.10 an 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 156.00-148.00 with targets of 153.80-154.20-155.00-155.90 and 156.60-157.10-157.60-158.20with stops below 148.00.