Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar reversed course on Monday, retreating from a three-month high after President Donald Trump suggested that the conflict with Iran was nearing an end. The greenback had initially gained due to safe-haven demand amid an escalating U.S.-Israel war with Iran that sparked a rally in oil prices. The dollar turned sharply lower after Trump’s comments The greenback has been on a tear recently, buoyed by safe-haven buying as a surge in oil prices has raised questions about global economic growth going forward The Dollar Index on Friday posted its best weekly performance since early August 2025. "The Dollar Index has rallied a long way in a short time, so it may need to consolidate now before it can head much higher. It tested 100.00 as resistance on several occasions last year, with the most concentrated attack taking place throughout November. It was rebuffed on every occasion," David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said. "So, the Dollar Index must build up a large store of upside momentum to have a decent chance of breaking above here this time. While it looks as if the U.S. dollar may have finally bottomed, if the Dollar Index can’t break through 100.00, then a retest of the January lows around 95.25 can’t be ruled out," Morrison said. Crude prices earlier soared to near $120 a barrel, coming close to the highs seen during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. But they pared those gains through most of the day and then turned sharply lower after President Trump told CBS that the war was "very complete, pretty much" and that the situation was “very far” ahead of his administration’s initial timeline of four to five weeks. Israeli and U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian oil facilities over the weekend, while Tehran retaliated by launching missile strikes against several oil facilities in Middle Eastern countries. Iran also effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz by attacking vessels in the shipping channel, a key source of oil for much of Asia. That said, oil prices tempered early gains on Monday after a report said the G7 countries will discuss a possible joint release of emergency reserves to offset supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. Brent oil futures for May initially surged over 30% to a peak of $119.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped as much as 30% to an intraday high of $119.43 a barrel earlier in the day. They turned sharply lower after President Trump’s comments to CBS. lat at 1.1634. The single currency has been hit hard as oil prices rose given the need for the eurozone to import energy, weighing on growth expectations in the region European economic data, released earlier Monday, have already painted a negative picture, as German factory orders slumped 11.1% in January, a sharper fall than the 4.2% expected and a significant drop from the 6.4% growth seen the previous month. German industrial production also fell 0.5% on the month in January, after dropping 1.0% the prior month. The yen took little support from stronger-than-expected wage income data for January, which showed a strong increase in wages – a trend that could underpin medium-term inflation expectations in Japan Chinese consumer price index inflation grew 1.3% year-on-year in February, government data showed. The print was higher than expectations of 0.9%, and also grew at its fastest pace in three years. The strong inflation print was driven chiefly by increased spending during the extended Lunar New Year holiday, as demand for travel, services, and discretionary goods rose sharply. But producer price index inflation still contracted, with markets now seeking more signs as to whether China’s inflationary uptrend will continue past the holiday boom.
• Oil prices fell on Tuesday after hitting an over three-year high in the prior session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies Oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday to hit their highest since mid-2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers during the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies. Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the Iran war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about a prolonged supply disruption. Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thinks the war against Iran "is very complete" and that Washington was "very far ahead" of his initial four- to five-week estimated timeframe. "Clearly Trump’s comments about a short-lived war has calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today," said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market is underappreciating risks at these levels for Brent. "Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed in terms of ground realities," he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades. In response to Trump, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said they would "determine the end of the war," and Tehran would not allow "one litre of oil" to be exported from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued, state media reported on Tuesday, citing the IRGC’s spokesperson. Prices, however, remain under pressure as Trump considers easing oil sanctions on Russia and releasing emergency crude stockpiles as part of a package of options aimed at curbing spiking global oil prices, according to multiple sources. "Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva in a note on Tuesday. G7 nations had said on Monday they were prepared to implement "necessary measures" in response to surging global oil prices but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$5182.02/oz and low of $5014.74/oz. God is down by 0.636% at US$5183.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 5185-5300 keeping stop loss closing above 5300, targeting 5140-5110-5090 and 5040-5024-4990-4960. Buy in between 5160-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US86.98/oz and low of US79.63/oz settle up by 3.05% at US$86.90oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 88.20-77.00, targeting 84.10-85.00-86.00-86.90-88.20 and 89.00-90.40-91.50-92.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 77.00. Sell in between 84.10-92.20 with a stop loss above 93.00 targeting 82.05-81.00 and 80.10-79.00-77.90-77.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$112.88/bbl, an intraday low of US$79.45/bbl, and settled down by 14.27% to close at US$83.14/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 87.79-80.00 with stop loss at 80.10; targeting 75.50-74.30-73.00-72.10 and 71.00-70.10-69.00. Buy above 87.10-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00, targeting 88.00-89.15-90.00-91.00 and 91.20-92.00

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.15065EUR, a high of US$1.1636/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.780% to close at US$1.1636/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1655-1.1990, targeting 1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1655-1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made a intraday low of US$1.3282/GBP, a high of US$1.3445/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.636% to close at US$1.3434/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3425-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3495-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.44/USD an intraday high of 157.84/USD, and settled the day up by 0.343% at JPY157.54/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.60153.00-152.65-152.10 an 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 157.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.