Daily Market Lookup

• Asian currencies weakened on Thursday as continued hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran drove sharp gains in oil prices and kept markets on edge over economic disruptions due to energy. The dollar advanced in Asian trade, benefiting in part from haven demand, and as higher oil also drove up bets on stickier inflation in the coming months. Asian currencies weakened across the board, given that a bulk of the region is highly dependent on oil and gas imports through the Strait of Hormuz, which is slowly becoming a major focus point in the Iran conflict. The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair fell 0.2%, retreating from a near four-year high. The currency remained upbeat amid growing confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates next week. The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair rose 0.3%, with the currency seen as among the most exposed to disruptions in energy supplies. ANZ analysts said they expect the rupee to remain volatile in the coming months, amid limited clarity on how the South Asian economy will navigate a fractured energy landscape. Dollar firms after muted CPI data, PCE print in focus The dollar index and dollar index futures rose between 0.2% and 0.3% in Asian trade, as heightened anxiety over the Iran war drove safe haven buying in the greenback. Consumer price index data released overnight showed inflation remained largely steady in February from the prior month. But the print did not reflect the inflation bump from rising oil prices due to the Iran conflict, with analysts now predicting stickier inflation in the event of a prolonged conflict.. PCE price index data, due later this week, is expected to provide more definitive cues on U.S. inflation. The print is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and is likely to factor into expectations for long-term rates A key point of concern over the Iran conflict is that energy-driven inflation could elicit a more hawkish stance from major global central banks, including the Fed, in the coming months. While such a scenario bodes well for the dollar, it is likely to weigh on Asian currencies.
• Oil prices climbed on Thursday after Iraqi security officials said Iranian explosive-laden boats had hit two fuel oil tankers amid other global supply disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were hit by unidentified attackers in Iraq’s territorial waters, causing them to catch fire, the director general of the General Company for Ports, Farhan al-Fartousi, told Reuters on Wednesday. An initial investigation from Iraqi security officials showed explosive-laden boats from Iran had hit the two tankers. The International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil to help rein in prices that have spiked due to supply shocks from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The U.S. is contributing the bulk of that release - 172 million barrels - from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. "The IEA’s release of oil reserves may be only a temporary solution, as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a major production halt in some Middle Eastern countries could cause a long-term supply crunch," said Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Washington was in "very good shape" in its war on Iran and that the U.S. was "going to look very strongly at the straits." U.S. intelligence indicates, however, that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon, according to sources familiar with the matter. "Oil prices continued to face upside pressure as there were no signs of war de-escalation in the Middle East," said Teng.
• Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday, sinking back into a trading range seen for more than a week as few signs of de-escalation in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran spurred flows into oil and the dollar. Weakness in gold came as continued hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran kept market focus squarely on the dollar and oil. Oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, briefly rising past $100 a barrel after media reports said two international oil tankers had been struck near Iraq. Other reports showed Oman evacuating a key oil export terminal, while Iran was seen blocking the Strait of Hormuz-- a key supply channel for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. Higher oil prices kept markets largely on edge over a long-term increase in inflation. This in turn fueled concerns over more hawkish central banks in the coming months– a scenario that bodes poorly for go. Mixed signals on the Iran conflict also spurred a whipsaw performance in metal markets this week. U.S. President Donald Trump and other officials repeatedly insisted that the Iran war was close to ending, despite continued hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. In-line Feb CPI offers few cues, PCE inflation data awaited Gold had briefly broken above $5,200/oz on Wednesday, but fell back below the level after the release of U.S. consumer price index inflation data. While the print read in line with expectations, it did little to dispell concerns over a future, energy-driven increase in price pressures. Focus this week is squarely on PCE price index data for January, due on Friday, for more decisive cues on inflation. The print is the Federal Reserve’s prefered inflation gauge, and is likely to factor into long-term expectations for inflation. While the PCE data is unlikely to reflect energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, it is expected to offer more cues on the world’s largest economy in the first month of 2026.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$5223.23/oz and low of $5149.30/oz. God is up by 0.820% at US$5175.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 5160-5300 keeping stop loss closing above 5300, targeting 5140-5110-5090 and 5040-5024-4990-4960. Buy in between 5100-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US89.42/oz and low of US85.92/oz settle down by 2.212% at US$85.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 86.90-77.00, targeting 88.20 and 89.00-90.40-91.50-92.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 77.00. Sell in between 88.10-93.20 with a stop loss above 94.00 targeting 82.05-81.00 and 80.10-79.00-77.90-77.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$87.52/bbl, an intraday low of US$80.84/bbl, and settled up by 2.11% to close at US$87.14/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 92.00-83.79 with stop loss at 80.10; targeting 83.00-82.20-81.00-80.55 and 79.45-78.50-77.90-77.00 Buy above 83.10-69.50 with risk daily closing below 69.00, targeting 84.00-85.10-86.00-87.10 and 88.00-89.15-90.00-91.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1560/EUR, a high of US$1.1644/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.319% to close at US$1.1572/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1655-1.1990, targeting 1.1590-1.1545-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1655-1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3392/GBP, a high of US$1.3482/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.045% to close at US$1.3407/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3325-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3395-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY157.26/USD an intraday high of 158.12/USD, and settled the day up by 0.343% at JPY158.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.60153.00-152.65-152.10 an 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 157.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.