Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar firmed on Thursday, as the currency’s recent safe haven status was bolstered by muddled messaging on the state of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The messaging around the Middle East conflict has been mixed. Iran’s public response to a 15-point peace proposal from the U.S. has been one of harsh rejection, but President Donald Trump and his administration said that negotiations were ongoing. Tasnim reported that Iran had officially delivered its response to the U.S. proposal and was awaiting Washington’s reply. In a social media post on Thursday morning, Trump said Iranian negotiators were "begging" to make a deal to end the almost month-old war. But shortly after the closing bell, Trump posted on social media that, as per the Iranian government’s request, he was extending the suspension of U.S. attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days. With traders attempting to parse through a deluge of developments out of the Middle East, oil prices once again floated above the $100 a barrel threshold. Crude has moderated slightly from a surge to nearly $120 a barrel earlier this month, yet is well above levels prior to the outbreak of the war in late February. Crucially, amid a wave of reports and rumors, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The vital waterway through which roughly a fifth of world’s oil and natural gas flows has been all but shuttered by the threat of Iranian attacks for weeks. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy, was killed in overnight strikes. Katz claimed Tangsiri was "directly responsible" for planting mines that have contributed to the blocking of the strait. An energy price shock caused by the Iran conflict has ignited fresh upward pressure on inflation and created substantial uncertainty in the global economic outlook, according to a report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Investors have widely begun to wager that a spike in inflation could lead central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to raise interest rates in the months ahead. Against this uncertain backdrop, traders have piled into the dollar, helping put the greenback on pace for a monthly climb of more than 2%. Looking at some of the dollar’s peers, the euro EUR/USD was marginally higher by 0.1% to 1.1538, while sterling also inched up by 0.1% to $1.3336. In Asia, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, with USD/JPY a smidge lower at 159.68. Both Europe and Asia are feeling a hit from the Iran war. Gas prices have rocketed in Europe. Meanwhile, one of the biggest hits from the Strait of Hormuz closure has been to Asian economies which depend heavily upon the shipping lane for oil and plastics.
• Oil prices were on track for a weekly decline on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a pause in attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days, though investors remained on edge as an imminent resolution to the conflict looked unlikely. On Friday, the benchmarks were little changed after a bullish previous session. Brent futures fell 4 cents to $107.97 per barrel as of 0608 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 40 cents at $94.08 per barrel. WTI futures, which have jumped 40% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, fell 4.6% this week, while Brent, up more than 48% since the war began, was down 4% for the week. "Despite talks of de-escalation, oil is trading on war longevity, not just headlines. Any direct damage to oil infrastructure or prolonged conflict could force markets to rapidly reprice higher," said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova. While Trump extended to April 6 his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, the U.S. has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. An Iranian official told Reuters that a 15-point U.S. proposal, conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan, was "one-sided and unfair". The war has taken 11 million barrels of oil per day out of global supply, with the International Energy Agency describing the crisis as worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the Russia-Ukraine war on gas put together. Analysts at Macquarie Group said if the war begins to wind down soon, oil prices will fall quickly in coming months, but still remain at pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until end of June, they said. "With each passing day, market pressure is building. Asian countries are tapping buffer stocks and weighing demand adjustments," said Mukesh Sahdev, founder & CEO of Australia-based consultancy XAnalysts.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday interaday high of US$4544.36/oz and low of $4350.99/oz. God is down by 2.97% at US$4376.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 5160-5300 keeping stop loss closing above 5300, targeting 5140-5110-5090 and 5040-5024-4990-4960. Buy in between 5100-4706 with risk below 4700 targeting 5024-5040 and 5090-5110-5140-5160.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US72.20/oz and low of US$66.69/oz settle down by 4.70% at US$67.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 69.00-63.00, targeting 68.90-69.50-70.20-70.90 and 70.90-71.50-72.00-72.60 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 63.00. Sell in between 69.90-73.60 with a stop loss above 74.00 targeting 68.00-67.10-66.50-66.10-65.00 and 64.40-63.00-62.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$94.20/bbl, an intraday low of US$88.52/bbl, and settled up by 2.43% to close at US$92.63/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 95.00-83.79 with stop loss at 80.10, targeting 93.60-92.90-92.00-91.20 and 90.00-89.15-88.00-87.10. Buy above 93.60-87.10 with risk daily closing below 87.00, targeting 94.80-95.50-97.00 and 97.70-98.60-99.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1518/EUR, a high of US$1.1571/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.234% to close at US$1.1532/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1550-1.1990, targeting 1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1655-1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3357/GBP, a high of US$1.3437/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.104% to close at US$1.3365/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3325-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3395-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.27/USD an intraday high of 159.27/USD, and settled the day up by 0.144% at JPY159.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.60153.00-152.65-152.10 and 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 157.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.