Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar headed for its biggest monthly gain since July on Tuesday and stands out as the strongest so-called safe asset, as war in the Middle East has set oil prices surging, nearly everything else sinking and raised the risk of global recession. But still all three were set for March falls of more than 2%. For the euro and pound, that is the largest drop since July, and since October for the yen. The dollar has been supported by the U.S. status as an energy exporter and by investors’ flight to cash over the past month of conflict. The latest news from the war, including a Wall Street Journal report that U.S. President Donald Trump was willing to end attacks on Iran without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, did little for currencies on Tuesday, but did underscore their monthly moves. Asian currencies have suffered some of the largest losses and, on Tuesday, the dollar pushed 1% higher against South Korea’s won, to 1,534 won, levels touched only in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998. Also top of mind for currency markets were renewed threats of intervention from Tokyo, which served to spare extra selling pressure on the yen, currently at its weakest since July 2024. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday repeated Tokyo’s readiness to respond "on all fronts" against volatile moves, saying they were seeing "speculative moves heightening in the currency market," as well as in the oil futures market. The dollar has stood tall since the war began over other perceived safe assets, not just the yen. A looming inflation spike has hurt bonds. A positioning clearout has sunk gold, while the energy shock hurts Japan’s terms of trade and Swiss authorities have indicated they would intervene to stem any steep gains for the franc. The main risk to the dollar might come from labour data due out in the liquidity vacuum of Good Friday, or, warned strategists at Union Bancaire Privee, a breakdown in the relationship that usually sees the dollar higher if stocks fall. March inflation data is due later in the session in Europe and German data from Monday suggests it is likely to rip back above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
• Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Tuesday, with Brent crude poised for its largest monthly gain on record and U.S. crude futures set for their strongest monthly increase since 2020, because of supply constraints from the widening Middle East war. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about a fifth of global oil supply and large numbers of liquefied natural gas tankers, has pushed Brent futures up 59% so far in March, its highest monthly gain ever, while WTI is up 58% this month, the most since May 2020. Highlighting the threat to seaborne energy supplies from the war between Iran and the United States and Israel, Kuwait Petroleum Corp said on Tuesday its fully loaded crude oil tanker Al Salmi, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels, was struck by an alleged Iranian attack at Dubai port, the state news agency KUNA said on Tuesday. Officials also warned of potential oil spills in the area. On Saturday, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces targeted Israel with missiles, raising fresh concerns over possible disruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the chokepoint linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and a key route for ships moving between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal. Saudi crude exports have been rerouted through this route, with volumes redirected from the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu reaching 4.658 million barrels per day last week, Kpler data showed, a sharp rise from an average of 770,000 bpd in January and February. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Monday that the U.S. would "obliterate" Iran’s energy plants and oil wells if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This followed Tehran’s dismissal of U.S. peace proposals as "unrealistic" and its recent missile strikes on Israel. Still, the White House said on Monday that talks with Iran were continuing and progressing well, adding that what Tehran says publicly differs from what it tells U.S. officials in private.
• Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, seeing some bids after logging deep losses in March as rising inflation expectations on the back of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran battered non-yielding assets such as metals. Metal markets were encouraged by a report that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering ceasing military action in Iran, as the conflict looked to extend beyond his initial four-to-six-week timeline. Bullion also took some support from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stating that long-term inflation remained grounded past any near-term shocks. Trump and his aides gauged that a mission to reopen Hormuz will likely push the conflict beyond the president’s initial timeline, and could also involve a complex military operation. Trump decided that the U.S. could wind down hostilities with Iran after achieving its main goals of denting Iran’s navy and missile capabilities. Washington will then pressure Tehran diplomatically to reopen the strait, and could also press Gulf and European allies to take point on the reopening. The report drummed up some hopes of an end to the conflict, although a continued closure in Hormuz– which supplies 20% of the world’s oil– is likely to keep energy and inflation concerns in play.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$4580.53/oz and low of $4419.61/oz. God is up by % at US$4510.28/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4550-4770 keeping stop loss closing above 4800, targeting 4500-4460-4420-4390 and 4371-4360-4340-4306. Buy in between 4500-4240 with risk below 4240 targeting 4550-4570-4602-4655 and 4680-4700-4720-4750.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US71.74/oz and low of US$67.66/oz settle up by 2.86% at US$70.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 73.00-63.00, targeting 73.00-73.60-74.10-74.60 and 75.00-75.90-76.50-77.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 63.00. Sell in between 73.60-77.00 with a stop loss above 77.00 targeting 72.60-72.00-71.50-70.90 and 70.20-69.50-68.90-68.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$102.28/bbl, an intraday low of US$90.85/bbl, and settled up by 2.038% to close at US$101.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 99.40-91.20 with stop loss at 91.00, targeting 97.70-97.00-98.60-95.50 and 94.80-93.60-92.90-92.00. Buy above 97.70-91.10 with risk daily closing below 91.00, targeting 98.60-99.50-100.00 and 100.50-100.90-101.50.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1442/EUR, a high of US$1.1520/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.344% to close at US$1.1460/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1550-1.1990, targeting 1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1600-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1655-1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3173/GBP, a high of US$1.3281/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.542% to close at US$1.3181/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3325-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3395-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.32/USD an intraday high of 160.44/USD, and settled the day down by 0.250% at JPY159.70/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.90-160.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.60153.00-152.65-152.10 and 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 157.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.