Daily Market Lookup

• The dollar sank to its lowest level in a month while the euro, yen, Aussie and sterling rallied hard in Asian trading on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Trump had earlier threatened widespread attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, drawing international condemnation after issuing an extraordinary warning that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if his demands were not met. Investors’ risk appetite rapidly returned after the ceasefire announcement, less than two hours before Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would have expired. If the strategic waterway is reopened, "we could be able to consolidate the risk-on rally that we’re seeing," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. "But a lot has to happen in the next 14 days," he said, adding that currencies would be vulnerable to a retracement of their recent moves in the interim. "Markets still need to proceed with a degree of scepticism." Fed funds futures are pricing coin-toss odds that the Federal Reserve could cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its December 9 meeting, compared to an implied 74.5% probability a day earlier that the U.S. central bank would remain on hold, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, weakened for a third consecutive day to lows of 98.838, its weakest since March 11. Elsewhere, the won strengthened 1.6% to 1,477.10, its biggest one-day appreciation since the Iran war began and shrugging off fresh geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. South Korea’s military said North Korea fired several ballistic missiles toward the sea off its east coast on Wednesday, following a separate launch detected a day earlier.
• Israel supports U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, but the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Wednesday. The premier’s office said Israel backed the U.S. move provided Tehran immediately opened the strait and stopped attacks against the United States, Israel and countries in the region. The remarks came after Washington announced a two-week suspension of attacks against Iran as part of efforts to de-escalate the conflict and open a window for negotiations. Israel also said it supported U.S. efforts to ensure Iran no longer posed a nuclear, missile or "terror" threat to the U.S., Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbours, adding that Washington had told Israel it was committed to achieving their shared goals in upcoming negotiations. Iran said on Wednesday negotiations with the U.S. would begin on Friday, April 10 in Islamabad. Two White House officials confirmed earlier that Israel had agreed to the two-week ceasefire and to suspend its bombing campaign on Iran, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped mediate the deal, said in a post on X that the agreement included a cessation of Israel’s campaign in Lebanon. The Israeli offensive in Lebanon has killed at least 1,500 people and displaced 1.2 million others. Lebanon was pulled into the war in the Middle East when Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with Tehran, two days after Iran was attacked by Israel and the U.S. Hezbollah’s attack prompted a new Israeli ground and air offensive.
• Oil prices plunged nearly 15% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, and said Washington would help ease shipping congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said on Tuesday that he had agreed to a two-week suspension of military action against Iran, just hours before a self-imposed 8:00 p.m. ET deadline. He said the U.S. had already achieved its core military objectives, adding that Iran had presented a multi-point proposal that could serve as the basis for a broader agreement. Iran also signaled a conditional willingness to de-escalate, saying safe passage through the Strait would be possible during the ceasefire period, provided hostilities were halted and vessels coordinated with Iranian authorities. The breakthrough came after last-minute diplomatic efforts, with Pakistan playing a key mediating role in urging both sides to step back from the brink of escalation. Trump’s deadline had been closely watched by markets, as it was expected to mark a major escalation in the conflict. In the hours leading up to it, oil prices had surged to multi-month highs amid fears that U.S. strikes could severely disrupt Middle East supply routes. Earlier, Trump had warned that Iran’s failure to comply could result in consequences where “a whole civilization could die." In his latest social media post on Wednesday, Trump said that the U.S. would help ease the traffic buildup in the Strait, expressing confidence that the ceasefire would hold and describing the development as “a big day for world peace.” The ceasefire, described by Trump as a “double-sided pause,” is conditional on Iran ensuring the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, had been effectively shut amid weeks of conflict.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday interaday high of US$4718.57/oz and low of $4607.32/oz. God is down by 1.20% at US$4705.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4650-4770 keeping stop loss closing above 4800, targeting 4605-4550-4500-4460 and 4420-4390-4371-4360. Buy in between 4500-4240 with risk below 4240 targeting 4550-4570-4602-4655 and 4680-4700-4720-4750.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US73.56/oz and low of US$71.13/oz settle up by 0.181% at US$72.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 76.00-63.00, targeting 77.40-77.95-78.50-79.00 and 79.60-80.50-81.20-82.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 63.00. Sell in between 77.00 82.00 with a stop loss above 82.00 targeting 75.90-75.00-74.60-74.10 and 73.60-73.10-72.60-72.00-71.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$99.33/bbl, an intraday low of US$100.36/bbl, and settled up by 0.053% to close at US$100.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 89.90-95.00 with stop loss at 108.00, targeting 89.00-88.10-87.60-87.00 and 85.80-85.00-84.40-83.90. Buy above 89.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 89.90-90.70-91.50-92.00 and 92.45-93.30-94.20-95.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1523/EUR, a high of US$1.1604/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.486% to close at US$1.1595/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1690-1.1990, targeting 1.1655-1.1600-1.565-1.1500 and 1.1450-1.1410-1.1350 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1655-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1690-1.1755-1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made a intraday low of US$1.3210/GBP, a high of US$1.3299/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.534% to close at US$1.3290/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3325-1.3150 with a target of 1.3395-1.3440-1.3490-1.3530 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3395-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3700.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.29/USD an intraday high of 160.44/USD, and settled the day up by 0.089% at JPY159.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.00-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 157.10-156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10 and 151.70-151.00-150.35 Long positions above 158.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.