Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar hovered around six-week lows on Wednesday, as risk appetite continued to improve on hopes of a prolonged ceasefire in the Iran war. The continued pivot by investors into risky assets such as equities over the last few weeks has weighed on the dollar, which has become a safe haven asset of choice during the ongoing Middle East conflict. Traders poured into the dollar in March, viewing it as a bastion during the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Boosting the appeal of the currency was the belief that the U.S. economy, a net energy exporter, is relatively insulated from an energy shock sparked by the effective closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway off of Iran’s southern coast. But the dollar is now floating only just above pre-war levels, with the prospect of a permanent halt to hostilities denting the currency’s safe-haven standing President Donald Trump has suggested that the U.S. war with Iran may be coming to a conclusion soon, even as the American military says an ongoing naval blockade has restricted shipping traffic in and out of Iran. Speaking to UK’s Sky News, Trump said it was "very possible" that a permanent ceasefire agreement with Iran could be reached prior to the visit of King Charles later this month. He added that Iran has been "beaten up pretty bad." Earlier, Trump told Maria Bartiromo of Fox News that the conflict, which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, is "close to over." The New York Post also reported that Trump expects temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks to resume in the next two days, following a first round talks in Pakistan last weekend that failed to produce any results. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday told reporters that the U.S. "remain very much engaged" in negotiations and that the conversations were "productive and ongoing." "We feel good about the prospects of a deal," Leavitt said, adding that reports about the U.S. requesting for an extension to the ceasefire were not true. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a tenuous two-week ceasefire until April 21. Hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East were furthered by Israel and Lebanon holding their first direct talks in decades this week in Washington. Israel has continued to carry out strikes against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, threatening to upend the halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Israel has disputed Iranian claims that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire deal. U.S. Central Command on Wednesday said it had "fully implemented" a naval blockade against Iran, in a likely bid to pressure Tehran into a peace deal. Oil prices seesawed, but remained below the $100 a barrel threshold, as traders kept close tabs on supply flows in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows. Compared to before the start of the conflict in late February, crude has stayed elevated, underpinning fears over a spike in inflationary pressures around the world. Recent U.S. consumer and producer price data for March showed a big impact of surging oil prices in headline inflation, but not so much in core prices. Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie, said that if peace were to break out, it would be "safe to assume that oil and natural gas prices would fall." The move came despite Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s comment about authorities being prepared to take "bold" action if needed.
• Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as ongoing worries about supply disruptions offset comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that the war on Iran could be over soon. A source briefed by Tehran said Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States, providing a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict. Forty-five days after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed, effectively shutting in about 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, transit through it remains at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings before the war, sources said. Cumulative Middle Eastern crude and condensate supply losses have reached 496 million barrels to date, said Johannes Rauball, senior crude analyst at Kpler. The U.S. has enacted a blockade of shipping leaving Iranian ports that its military said has completely halted trade going in and out of the country by sea. The U.S. will not be renewing the waivers that allowed the purchase of some Iranian and Russian oil without facing U.S. sanctions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters on Wednesday. Finance ministers from almost a dozen countries led by Britain called on the U.S., Israel and Iran to implement their ceasefire in full and said the conflict would weigh on the global economy and markets even if it was resolved soon. Bessent said the U.S. economy will be slower this quarter, but is in good shape and will rebound, adding that oil prices do not appear to be weighing on inflation expectations. Adding to economic uncertainty, Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell from his separate seat on the U.S. central bank’s Board of Governors if the Federal Reserve chair does not vacate that post as well when his term as Fed chief ends on May 15. Analysts worry that involving more politics in interest rate decisions could reduce the Fed’s ability to control inflation. Trump wants the Fed to cut rates, which would reduce consumer costs and could boost economic growth and demand for oil. U.S. import prices increased less than expected in March, though the trend still pointed to firming imported inflationary pressures as the Middle East conflict boosts oil prices and snarls supply chains. Higher oil prices could lead to a rise in consumer inflation expectations, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee told the Financial Times in an interview, adding the U.S. central bank faces a double danger from the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs. The International Monetary Fund expects at least a dozen countries to seek new loan programs to cope with surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East war. Japan said it would establish a financial framework worth about $10 billion to help Asian countries procure energy resources and bolster their stockpiles. Russia is ready to increase energy supplies to China ahead of an expected visit by President Vladimir Putin, Russian news agencies quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying.One factor supporting U.S. crude prices earlier in the day was the surprise U.S. Energy Information Administration report showing energy firms pulled 0.9 million barrels of crude from stockpiles during the week ended April 10. That compared with the 0.15-million-barrel build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and an increase of 6.1 million barrels that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group reported on Tuesday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday interaday high of US$4871.36/oz and low of $4786.47/oz. God is down by 1.06% at US$4790.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4840-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4790-4750-4690-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4790-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4840-4870-4900 and 4940-4974-4995-5020

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US81.01/oz and low of US$78.21/oz settle down by 0.64% at US$78.90/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 79.50-73.00, targeting 79.90-80.50-81.20 and 82.00-82.90-83.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 79.90 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 79.60-79.00-78.50-77.40

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday high of US$93.14/bbl, an intraday low of US$88.30/bbl, and settled down by 3.88% to close at US$89.07/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 92.00-100.00 with stop loss at 100.00, targeting 91.50-90.70-89.90. Buy above 91.50-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 92.00-92.45-93.30-94.20 and 95.40-96.00-97.45-98.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1771/EUR, a high of US$1.1807/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.312% to close at US$1.1798/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1790-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1755-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3542/GBP, a high of US$1.3578/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.030% to close at US$1.3559/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3525-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY158.63/USD an intraday high of 159.14/USD, and settled the day up by 0.1455% at JPY158.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.