Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar turned slightly lower on Monday, after an American seizure of an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend sparked uncertainty over whether a temporary ceasefire between the two countries would be extended. Traders of the dollar were also cautious a day ahead of a key hearing of Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve governor who has been nominated by President Donald Trump to take over as the next central bank chief from Jerome Powell. The dollar initially inched higher in Monday’s session after the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel over the weekend sparked a flare-up in tensions. U.S. Central Command on Sunday said American forces fired upon, boarded, and took into custody a vessel named M/V Touska. Following the ship’s failure to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, the U.S. military fired several rounds and disabled the vessel’s engine room. Iran decried the move and vowed retaliation, state media said. The renewed tensions threw a cloud over the fate of further peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Market participants received conflicting headlines about the negotiations. President Donald Trump on Monday told Bloomberg News that Vice President JD Vance would be leaving later in the day to resume peace talks in Pakistan. But the New York Post earlier reported that Vance would actually be leaving to Pakistan on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Trump previously told the paper that the U.S. delegation would be in Pakistan "tonight." Meanwhile, CNN reported that the White House had offered no clear indication of timing, saying the delegation would be "on the road soon but unclear when." A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran comes to an end on Wednesday, a deadline confirmed by Trump to Bloomberg News. Away from the Middle East conflict, it is a big week for the dollar as Kevin Warsh’s U.S. Senate hearing could result in big moves in the greenback. The Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will commence the hearing at 10:00 ET on Wednesday. Warsh was nominated as the next Fed chair at the end of January by Trump, leading to a noticeable move in the dollar. The U.S. currency jumped, halting a sell-off heading into the nomination, as markets saw Warsh as a more hawkish choice who would be more likely to reduce the central bank’s balance sheet. Speaking of central banks, it will be a busy two weeks for monetary policy watchers as major interest rate decisions will be issued across the globe. The parade was kicked off by the People’s Bank of China on Monday, which kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged after the world’s second-largest economy posted growth at the top end of the government’s target.
• Gold prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday as markets remained uncertain over whether the U.S. and Iran will engage in more peace talks before their ceasefire ends later this week. Focus was also on a Senate confirmation hearing for U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, which is set to take place later in the day. Gold remained squarely in a tight trading band seen for over two weeks, as spot prices struggled to break out of a $4,700-$4,900/oz range. The yellow metal has underperformed since the onset of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, as haven demand was largely overshadowed by concerns over the war’s inflationary impact. The future of the war remained largely uncertain, amid conflicting signals on whether more U.S.-Iran peace talks will take place. Trump confirmed that a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance will travel to Pakistan for more talks this week. Iranian officials said talks appeared unlikely as long as the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of the country. But reports showed that Tehran had confirmed to regional mediators that it was sending a delegation to Islamabad. A tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire this Wednesday, with Trump signaling that an extension in the deal appeared unlikely. Markets were also on edge over more military action in the Middle East after the U.S. fired on and captured an Iran-flagged vessel over the weekend. Beyond the Iran war, focus this week will also be on Warsh’s confirmation hearing, which is set to begin at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT). His independence from Trump– who has constantly demanded lower rates– will be a key point of focus. Warsh’s nomination was viewed as less dovish than markets were expecting. While he has expressed support for Trump’s calls for lower rates, he has in the past criticized the Fed’s asset buying activities, and has called for a leaner balance sheet. Warsh’s nomination had sparked deep losses in gold and precious metals in late-January, dragging bullion off record highs it has since struggled to retake.
• Oil prices fell on Tuesday, reversing gains in the previous session, on expectations peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place this week and allow more supply to flow from the key Middle East producing region. Both benchmarks surged on Monday, with Brent up 5.6% and WTI up 6.9%, after Iran again shut the Strait of Hormuz, closing the key oil transport artery, and the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship as part of its blockade of the country’s ports. Still, investors are focusing on the likelihood talks this week will result in the extension of the existing ceasefire or a final agreement, though the chance of further conflict and disruptions to oil flows remains. Iran is weighing participation in peace talks in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, following Islamabad’s efforts to end the U.S. blockade. The blockade has posed a major hurdle to Tehran rejoining peace efforts, with the current two-week ceasefire set to expire this week. Underscoring the uncertainty around the talks, the Iranian official stressed that no decision has been made to attend, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said "continued violations of the ceasefire" by the U.S. is a hindrance to further negotiations. Separately, Iran’s top negotiator and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reiterated that Tehran would not negotiate under threats Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, remained limited on Monday. If disruptions to the strait persist for another month, total losses could rise to about 1.3 billion barrels, with prices likely near $110 a barrel in the second quarter of 2026, Citi said. Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments due to the strait’s blockade, Bloomberg News reported The higher prices caused by the closure of the strait have cut oil demand by about 3% so far, analysts at Societe Generale said in a client note. The risk is "skewed toward larger losses the longer normalisation is delayed," it said, adding it expects "full normalisation" to supply only by late 2026.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$4827.54/oz and low of $4737.12/oz. God is up by 1.15% at US$4820.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4840-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4790-4750-4690-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4790-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4840-4870-4900 and 4940-4974-4995-5020.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US80.65/oz and low of US$78.57/oz settle up by 0.848% at US$79.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 79.50-73.00, targeting 79.90-80.50-81.20 and 82.00-82.90-83.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 79.90 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 79.60-79.00-78.50-77.40

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$88.44/bbl, an intraday low of US$85.31/bbl, and settled down by 3.06% to close at US$85.53/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 87.90-93.30 with stop loss at 94.00, targeting 87.00-86.01-85.60 and 84.90-84.50-84.00. Buy above 87.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 87.90-88.40-88.90-89.90 and 90.70-91.50-92.00-92.45-93.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1728/EUR, a high of US$1.1789/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.435% to close at US$1.1786/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1790-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1755-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made a intraday low of US$1.3473/GBP, a high of US$1.3543/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.394% to close at US$1.3532/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3525-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.29/USD an intraday high of 159.81/USD, and settled the day down by 0.297% at JPY159.66/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.10-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.