Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar gained ground on Tuesday after declining in the prior session, as Trump extended ceasefire with Iran despite no agreement over peace talks. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced he would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire until Tehran could present a unified negotiating proposal. This decision followed media reports suggesting a potential breakdown in further planned peace talks between the two nations. As of Tuesday evening, Pakistani officials said that Iran has yet to publicly confirm whether it will send a delegation to the peace talks in Islamabad. “A decision from Iran to attend the talks before the end of the two-week cease-fire is critical,” Pakistan’s information minister Ataullah Tarar stated in a social media post. Trump, who first announced the ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET (22:32 GMT), said in a social media post on Tuesday that Iran had broken the truce "numerous times," but did not elaborate further or provide more details. Yet he later told CNBC that he expects the U.S. to make a "great deal" with Iran, adding that the U.S. is in a "very strong negotiating position." The New York Times reported in the afternoon that U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Islamabad in Pakistan for more talks was on hold after Tehran failed to respond to U.S. negotiating positions, citing a U.S. official with direct knowledge of the matter. The U.S. has expressed confidence that the discussions in Pakistan will go ahead and a Pakistani source has claimed that Tehran will be joining, according to Reuters. But Trump has seemingly poured cold water on the potential for an extension to the ceasefire, telling CNBC that he does not want to renew the truce. Trump has been insisting that he wants an agreement that will stem ructions in financial markets, along with a promise from Iran not to pursue development of a nuclear weapon. Elsewhere, focus was turning to a Senate confirmation hearing for President Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, scheduled for later in the day. In his prepared remarks before the U.S. Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Warsh said, if confirmed, he would ensure that the Fed’s conduct remained "strictly independent." U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he would be disappointed if Kevin Warsh, his nominee for Fed chair, did not cut interest rates immediately after taking office following Senate approval. His nomination by Trump in late-January was viewed as less dovish than markets were expecting. Incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire on May 15. But several lawmakers have committed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the Trump administration drops a criminal probe into Powell, which has been criticized as a threat to its independence.
• Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low after the U.S. indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran, although markets still remained unclear on future peace talks. The yellow metal was also pressured by comments from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh that he made no promises to President Donald Trump that he will cut interest rates if confirmed. While the Iran ceasefire extension provides some relief, the status of future peace talks remains largely uncertain. Potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which were expected to take place on Tuesday, fell through at the eleventh hour. Trump said a naval blockade against Iran will remain, drawing ire from Iranian officials, who called it an “act of war.” Gold has struggled since the onset of the Iran war, as safe haven demand was largely overshadowed by concerns over the war’s inflationary impact. Precious metal prices were also pressured by strength in the dollar on Tuesday, as the greenback firmed tracking Warsh’s testimony. Warsh emphasized on the Fed’s independence from politics, but also flagged a major policy overhaul at the central bank if confirmed as its chair. Warsh– a former Fed governor– was seen as a less dovish pick than markets were expecting. His nomination had triggered deep losses in gold and precious metals in late-January.
• Oil prices turned lower on Wednesday after rising about $1 at the start of trade in Asia, with investors assessing the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the U.S. extension of a ceasefire U.S. President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before its expiry, to allow talks to continue to end a war that has killed thousands and shaken the global economy. The move appeared unilateral, and it was not immediately clear whether Iran, or U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend the truce, which began two weeks ago. Trump also said the U.S. Navy would maintain its blockade of Iran’s ports and shore, which Iranian leaders have called an act of war. There was no immediate comment from Iran’s most senior leaders on Trump’s ceasefire extension. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said Iran had not asked for the extension and repeated its position of breaking the U.S. blockade by force. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally channels about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, remained broadly halted on Tuesday with only three ships passing along the waterway in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed. Elsewhere, the Israeli military said Hezbollah fired rockets at its troops in southern Lebanon, accusing the Iran-backed group of violating a ceasefire ahead of U.S.-mediated talks with Lebanon this week. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah. In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Druzhba oil pipeline pumping Russian oil onto the continent is ready to resume operation. Three industry sources, however, said Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting on May 1. Later on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish inventory data. U.S. crude oil inventory fell by 4.5 million barrels last week after three weeks of gain, while gasoline and distillate stock also declined, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Analysts estimated a 1.2 million-barrel draw of crude for the week ended April 17.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday interaday high of US$4833.11/oz and low of $4688.43/oz. God is down by 2.232% at US$4718.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4790-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4750-4690-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4750-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4790-4840-4870-4900 and 4940-4974-4995-5020.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday its intraday high of US80.17/oz and low of US$75.39/oz settle down by 3.82% at US$79.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 78.00-73.00, targeting 79.00-79.90-80.50-81.20 and 82.00-82.90-83.50 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 79.00 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 78.10-77.40-76.90-76.00 and 75.20-74.60-74.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday high of US$91.60/bbl, an intraday low of US$85.17/bbl, and settled up by 4.78% to close at US$89.61/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 88.90-93.30 with stop loss at 94.00, targeting 87.90-87.00-86.01-85.60 and 84.90-84.50-84.00. Buy above 88.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 87.90-88.40-88.90-89.90 and 90.70-91.50-92.00-92.45-93.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1718/EUR, a high of US$1.1790/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.377% to close at US$1.1742/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1790-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1725-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made a intraday low of US$1.3474/GBP, a high of US$1.3539/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.186% to close at US$1.3505/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY158.62/USD an intraday high of 159.63/USD, and settled the day up by 0.403% at JPY159.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.70-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.