Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar turned marginally higher on Wednesday, as safe haven demand was boosted by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks on ships. A ceasefire extension between Washington and Tehran provided some relief to traders. The dollar spiked in March, as investors flocked to the currency in the belief that strong U.S. energy exports will help insulate the American economy from an energy shock caused by oil supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. But the currency is now back to around pre-war levels, as analysts begin to suggest that the peak of the geopolitical turmoil caused by the Iran war may have passed. Expectations that central banks would keep interest rates higher for longer in order to combat any inflationary shock from surging oil prices also boosted the dollar in March. The greenback tends to perform better in higher rate environments. Turning to the latest developments in the Middle East, President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would extend an ongoing two-week ceasefire with Iran -- which was supposed to end on Wednesday -- until such a time that Tehran would be able to present a unified negotiating proposalTrump’s announcement came just minutes after the closing bell on Wall Street, with sentiment taking a hit after media reports hinted at a breakdown in peace talks. Trump on Wednesday told the New York Post that more talks were "possible" as early as Friday. Iran, for its part, kept up a harsh public rhetoric, with stae media saying Tehran had decided not to join any new round of talks with the U.S., citing Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson. State media also said Iran had not yet announced an official position on the extension of the ceasefire. Tensions remained elevated despite the ceasefire extension after three ships were attacked by the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s state media and shipping monitor UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre.
• Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Thursday, extending recent losses and briefly breaking below a recent trading range as uncertainty over the Iran war and U.S. interest rates supported the dollar and curbed demand for bullion. Get more key insights on gold and the impact of the Iran war by subscribing to InvestingPro The yellow metal struggled to make headway as markets remained largely uncertain over the status of more U.S.-Iran talks, after President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire. Tehran and Washington signaled little openness to fresh negotiations after planned talks largely fell through this week. Iran said the U.S. must lift a blockade against the country before any negotiations can take place, while Washington demanded a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran continued to block Hormuz, while the U.S. maintained a naval blockade against Iran and also policed Iranian ships in broader Asia, leaving both countries at an impasse. Oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel this week, keeping fears of energy-fueled inflation squarely in play. Metal markets were also pressured by strength in the dollar, which steadied at a near 1-½ week high on Thursday. The greenback firmed after Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, said he had made no commitments to cut interest rates, as demanded by the president.
• Oil prices rose further in Asian trade on Thursday, aided by few signs of fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remained scant after attacks on vessels this week. Oil had clocked wild swings earlier this week, before settling higher on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension in a ceasefire with Iran. But this was accompanied by Washington and Tehran dropping out of potential peace talks in Pakistan. Oil had risen sharply on Wednesday after Iran attacked and seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the waterway largely shut. The U.S. maintained a navy blockade against the country, drawing ire from Tehran. The status of more U.S.-Iran peace talks remained wholly unclear even after Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire. Washington was also seen pursuing Iranian vessels in broader Asian waters, reports showed this week. Iran has ruled out the possibility of any ceasefire talks as long as the U.S. maintains its naval blockade. Trump has called on Tehran to fully reopen Hormuz before any major peace deal can be signed, leaving the two countries at an impasse. Hormuz has become a key point of focus in the Iran conflict, with its closure blocking roughly 20% of global oil supplies. Economies in Asia and the Middle East are expected to be the worst hit by disruptions.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$477.27/oz and low of $4715.56/oz. God is down by 0.303% at US$4739.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4750-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4750-4690-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4700-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4790-4840-4870-4900 and 4940-4974-4995-5020.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US78.66/oz and low of US$76.34/oz settle up by 5.27% at US$77.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 75.00-73.00, targeting 77.00-78.10-79.00-79.90 and 80.50-81.20-82.00-82.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 77.00 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 78.10-77.40-76.90-76.00 and 75.20-74.60-74.10.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$92.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$86.95/bbl, and settled up by 2.67% to close at US$91.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 88.90-93.30 with stop loss at 94.00, targeting 87.90-87.00-86.01-85.60 and 84.90-84.50-84.00. Buy above 88.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 87.90-88.40-88.90-89.90 and 90.70-91.50-92.00-92.45-93.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1702/EUR, a high of US$1.1761/EUR, and settled the down by 0.278% to close at US$1.1704/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.08/USD an intraday high of 159.56/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0859% at JPY159.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.08/USD an intraday high of 159.56/USD, and settled the day up by 0.0859% at JPY159.44/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.70-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.