Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar strengthened on Thursday, as safe haven demand was boosted amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East. Despite a ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran, attacks on ships in and around the critical Strait of Hormuz and harsh public rhetoric between Washington and Tehran weighed on risk appetite. Trump says U.S. to ’shoot and kill’ mine laying boats in Hormuz President Donald Trump on Thursday said he had ordered the U.S. navy to "shoot and kill any boat" that is "putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s posts came after more action in and around the strait, a vital waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows. Its effective closure since the start of the Middle East conflict has led to the biggest oil supply disruption in history. The U.S. military said it had taken into custody an oil tanker affiliated with Iran, with the Defense Department unveiling footage purportedly showing American troops on the deck of the vessel in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, Iran also revealed a video appearing to show its soldiers boarding a cargo ship near the strait. Tehran had earlier attacked three ships in the strait on Wednesday, seizing two of them. A focal point of the tensions is the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastline. U.S. Central Command on Thursday said it had redirected 33 vessels since the start of the blockade. Traders were also fretting over the status of future negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Both countries appear to be at an impasse over the strait and the U.S. blockade, though the Wall Street Journal reported that mediators from Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt were trying to arrange a potential meeting for talks as soon as Friday. Israel’s N12 News on Thursday reported that Iran’s Ghalibaf had resigned from the country’s negotiating team following intervention from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The U.S. dollar was additionally helped by some better-than-expected flash PMI data. According to S&P Global, U.S. business activity growth rebounded in April after "having slowed to near-stagnation in March following the outbreak of the war in the Middle East." Bets that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates this year have also grown, especially as oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel this week, threatening to exacerbate fears over a spike in inflationary pressures that could force central banks to even hike rates. Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair, on Tuesday told lawmakers he had made no commitments to slash borrowing costs, and emphasized the central bank’s independence. Trump has frequently badgered the Fed to aggressive bring down rates to help boost the economy. A Reuters poll this week found investors expect the Fed to wait at least six months before cutting interest rates. Turning to other major currencies, the euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1687, after data from S&P Global showed eurozone private sector output slipping into contraction territory in April, ending a run of 15 straight months of growth.
• Oil prices rose on Friday due to fears of a renewed military escalation in the Middle East after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and on reports Tehran’s air defences had engaged "hostile targets. Brent rose 17.13% throughout the course of the week while WTI rose 15.13%, the second-largest weekly gain since the war began. The resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran cut around 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas. Both benchmark contracts settled up more than 3% on Thursday and jumped $5 a barrel after reports that air defences were engaging targets over Tehran and of a power struggle between Iran’s hardliners and moderates. U.S. President Donald Trump said that Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during the two-week ceasefire, but added that the U.S. military could eliminate it in just a single day. The ceasefire phase is increasingly looking like a preparatory phase for war, Haitong Futures said in a report. If U.S.-Iran talks fail to make key progress by the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year, it added. Iran on Thursday posted video of commandos in a speedboat storming a huge cargo ship after the collapse of peace talks, underlining its grip over the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil and gas usually flows. As investors and governments around the world look for an enduring peace, Trump said he would not set a "timetable" for ending the conflict with Iran and that he wanted to make "a great deal." "Don’t rush me," he said when asked how long he was willing to wait for a long-term peace deal with Iran. Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push global crude and refined-product inventories below five-year seasonal lows by late May or early June, adding a supply-risk premium back into oil prices, said Mingyu Gao, chief researcher for energy and chemicals at China Futures. Trump also announced in a social media post on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks after a high-level meeting between representatives of both countries in the White House Oval Office. "The Meeting went very well! The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah," Trump wrote on Truth Social. Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned armed group that is fighting Israel, was not present at the talks. It says it has "the right to resist" occupying forces. Trump said he looked forward to hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the near future.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday interaday high of US$4753.56/oz and low of $4693.97/oz. God is down by 1.046% at US$4693.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4660-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4655-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4650-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4690-4750-4790-4840 and 4870-4900-4940-4974-4995.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US78.36/oz and low of US$74.22/oz settle down by 3.01% at US$75.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 74.70-73.00, targeting 77.00-78.10-79.00-79.90 and 80.50-81.20-82.00-82.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 75.00 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 74.60-74.10-73.60-73.00 and 72.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$92.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$86.95/bbl, and settled up by 2.67% to close at US$91.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 88.90-93.30 with stop loss at 94.00, targeting 87.90-87.00-86.01-85.60 and 84.90-84.50-84.00. Buy above 88.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 87.90-88.40-88.90-89.90 and 90.70-91.50-92.00-92.45-93.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1705/EUR, a high of US$1.1690/EUR, and settled the down by 0.278% to close at US$1.1684/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made a intraday low of US$1.3453/GBP, a high of US$1.3520/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.281% to close at US$1.3466/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.29/USD an intraday high of 159.86/USD, and settled the day up by 0.163% at JPY159.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.70-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.