Daily Market Lookup

• Most Asian currencies firmed on Monday, while the dollar fell slightly as focus turned to upcoming meetings at the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in the coming days. Markets remained largely on edge over the Middle East conflict, after the U.S. and Iran backed out of talks in Pakistan over the weekend. A host of major economic readings are also due in the coming days, offering markets more insight into the impact of the Iran war. The BOJ is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% on Tuesday, although some analysts said a 25 basis point hike was still possible. The central bank is likely to offer a hawkish outlook on policy, especially in the face of sticky inflation and price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. But a hold and a less hawkish stance than markets are expecting could weigh on the yen. The currency was nursing deep losses in March and dithered in April as markets questioned if the BOJ had enough headroom to raise rates further. The dollar index and dollar index futures fell about 0.1% apiece in Asian trade, pulling back slightly after logging strong gains last week. The greenback was buoyed by safe haven demand in the face of the Iran conflict, while expectations of more hawkish global central banks also supported the greenback The Federal Reserve is set to meet later this week and is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, amid increasing economic uncertainty from the Iran war. The meeting could be the last for Chair Jerome Powell, after U.S. lawmakers signaled on Sunday they would allow the Senate confirmation of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to proceed. This was after the Department of Justice dropped an investigation into Powell last week, following demands from Republican lawmakers. Warsh had testified before Congress that he had made no commitments to cut interest rates if confirmed as Fed chair. He was also viewed as a less dovish pick than markets were expecting. Broader Asian currencies firmed amid some improvement in risk appetite, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump said he remained open to talks with Iran. An Axios report said Iran had offered the U.S. a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although the offer also entailed postponing discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program– which could be a major sticking point for Washington. Among Asian currencies, the Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair rose 0.3%, reflecting some improvement in risk appetite. Markets were also positioning for a strong first-quarter consumer price index inflation reading, due later in the week. The print is likely to further expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
• The Chinese yuan’s USD/CNY pair fell 0.1%, with the currency remaining close to its strongest level in three years. Chinese purchasing managers index data for April is due this week, and is set to offer more cues on business activity in Asia’s largest economy. Prints for March showed some pick-up in activity, with focus squarely on whether this momentum can be maintained.
• Oil prices whipsawed in volatile trade on Friday, but were higher on the week, as traders weighed supply disruptions against the potential restart of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran that could help limit those disruptions. For the week, Brent gained about 16% and WTI rose nearly 13%. Crude futures gave back early gains after Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the U.S. after talks collapsed earlier this week. Prices fell further after CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump was sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran’s foreign minister. Later, Trump told Reuters that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands. Early in the session, prices rose 2% on fears of renewed military escalation in the region, the day after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and as progress stalled on re-opening the vital waterway. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about a fifth of global oil output, remains effectively blocked. Iran’s capture of two cargo ships highlighted Washington’s difficulties in trying to control the passage. Only five ships, including an Iranian oil products tanker, have moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during a two-week ceasefire, but added that the U.S. military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks. "This favors even higher prices especially in Brent and diesel, the more sensitive markets to a continuation of this war." Haitong Futures said in a report that if peace talks fail to make progress by the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday interaday high of US$4740.21/oz and low of $4657.70/oz. God is up by 0.171% at US$4709.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4750-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4680-4655-4605-4550 and 4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4700-4420 with risk below 4420 targeting 4750-4790-4840 and 4870-4900-4940-4974-4995.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US76.66/oz and low of US$73.93/oz settle down by 0.170% at US$75.67/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 74.70-73.00, targeting 77.00-78.10-79.00-79.90 and 80.50-81.20-82.00-82.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 73.00. Sell in between 75.00 84.00 with a stop loss above 84.00 targeting 74.60-74.10-73.60-73.00 and 72.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$96.19/bbl, an intraday low of US$91.28/bbl, and settled down by 1.424% to close at US$93.23/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 93.60-99.00 with stop loss at 99.00, targeting 92.00-90.70-89.9087.90-87.00-86.01-85.60 and 84.90-84.50-84.00. Buy above 92.00-83.90 with risk daily closing below 83.00, targeting 93.60-94.30-95.00-95.80 and 96.50-97.30-98.10-99.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.16722/EUR, a high of US$1.1690/EUR, and settled the up by 0.344% to close at US$1.1721/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3452/GBP, a high of US$1.3536/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.508% to close at US$1.3532/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.30/USD an intraday high of 159.83/USD, and settled the day down by 0.158% at JPY159.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.50-163.10 with risk above 160.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.10-156.60 and 153.00-152.65-152.10-151.70. Long positions above 158.70-148.00 with targets of 157.90-158.30-158.70 and 159.20-159.45-160.00 with stops below 148.00.