Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar added to gains on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady as expected but saw the most dissents in its decision since 1992. Safe haven demand was also boosted by another diplomatic setback between Washington and Tehran. The Fed kept its key policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% as widely expected at the end of its latest two-day gathering, as policymakers eye the inflationary effects of the Iran war. However, four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented, the highest number since October 1992. One policymaker preferred a 25 basis point rate cut, while three others did not support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement "at this time." The Fed’s decision comes at a time when surging oil prices due to the Iran war have made their impact felt on headline consumer prices in the U.S. More possible inflationary pain ahead, along with a labor market that remains in a "low hire, low fire" environment, has made the central bank’s job complicated. This is also expected to be the last monetary policy action under current chair Jerome Powell. Watchers of monetary policy will be interested in knowing whether Powell will decide to stay on as a governor after his term as chair ends in May. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Powell’s chosen successor, Kevin Warsh, to a full Senate vote, setting up President Donald Trump’s pick for a final confirmation. The Fed is among a slew of central banks across the globe that will be issuing interest rate decisions this week. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan also held its key policy rate steady, while the Bank of Canada earlier this morning did the same "Central bank MPCs that are meeting this week will be mindful of the inflation that adverse supply-side disruptions may cause. But that doesn’t mean that they’ll hike yet, as enough ’doves’ will defer to a variety of ’rationalizations’ to avoid hiking now," Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie, said. urning to developments in the Middle East, Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran, signaling a shift toward sustained economic pressure as Washington weighs its next steps in the conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. Citing U.S. officials, the report said Trump has opted to intensify efforts to choke Iran’s oil exports and restrict shipping to and from its ports, viewing a blockade as less risky than either resuming large-scale military strikes or pursuing a rapid diplomatic exit. Media reports on Tuesday said Trump was unhappy with a three-step Iranian proposal that would have reopened the strait while deferring negotiations on its nuclear ambitions to a later date. The WSJ report said Trump was not willing to drop a key demand that Iran commit to suspending uranium enrichment for at least 20 years. Trump later told Axios on Wednesday that he saw the blockade as "somewhat more effective than the bombing" and that he would not lift it because he doesn’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Axios also reported that the U.S. Central Command had prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter. Turning to other major currencies, the euro slipped 0.4% to $1.1669, after data from Germany and Spain showed a rise in headline consumer inflation due to surging oil prices amid the Iran war. The sterling was down 0.4% to $1.3467, with politics in focus a day after the UK parliament voted against an inquiry into whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer misled the House of Commons over the vetting for Peter Mandelson’s appointment as U.S. ambassador. Starmer also faces a key test in the form of local elections next week. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen weakened, with the USD/JPY pair gaining 0.5% to top the key $160 level. The Bank of Japan on Tuesday held interest rates steady while warning of possible rate hikes ahead. The best investments start with better data. Going with your gut has its place, but when excitement masquerades as intuition, it can lead to costly mistakes—or analysis paralysis.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday on a report the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran to break the deadlock in negotiations to end the war, increasing concerns of more supply disruptions to already curtailed Middle East exports. Both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains. U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of military strikes on Iran in hopes it will return to negotiations on its nuclear programme, according to an Axios report late on Wednesday. The U.S. and Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28 and it retaliated by closing off almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Amid a ceasefire that has paused active combat, the U.S. has imposed a blockade on Iranian ports Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what analysts say is the world’s biggest energy disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war. In a sign the conflict and resulting energy supply disruptions are set to continue for longer, Trump spoke on Wednesday with oil companies about how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade, a White House official said. The OPEC+ grouping of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies is likely to agree a small increase of around 188,000 barrels per day in oil output quotas on Sunday, sources told Reuters on Wednesday. The meeting comes just after the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC, effective May 1, which is expected to deal a blow to the oil producer group’s ability to control prices. Although the Gulf nation’s exit would allow it to raise production after exports restart, analysts say that is unlikely to affect market fundamentals this year, especially with the Hormuz closure and other production disruptions from the war.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$4610.19/oz and low of $4510.01/oz. God is down by 1.19% at US$4543.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4560-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4530-4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4500-4320 with risk below 44320 targeting 4560-4600-4630-4655-4700 and 4750-4790-4840-4870-4900.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US73.93/oz and low of US$70.84/oz settle down by 2.239% at US$71.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 71.60-67.00, targeting 72.00-72.90-73.60-74.60 and 75.20-75.90-77.00-78.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 72.10 80.00 with a stop loss above 80.00 targeting 71.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$105.42/bbl, an intraday low of US$96.10/bbl, and settled up by 8.342% to close at US$105.33/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 97.30-103.80 with stop loss at 104.00, targeting 96.50-95.80-95.00-94.00 and 93.60-92.00-90.70-89.90-87.90. Buy above 96.50-89.00 with risk daily closing below 89.00, targeting 97.30-98.10-99.00-100.30 and 100.90-101.60-103.00-103.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.16605/EUR, a high of US$1.1719/EUR, and settled down by 0.344% to close at US$1.1673/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3456/GBP, a high of US$1.3526/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.291% to close at US$13474/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3440-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3490-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.46/USD an intraday high of 160.46/USD, and settled the day up by 0.529% at JPY160.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 160.90-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-148.00 with targets of 160.90-161.60 and 162.20-162.60-163.00with stops below 148.00.