Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, with its weakening against the Japanese yen in particular grabbing the spotlight after a report that the Asian nation had intervened in a bid to prop up its currency. Nikkei on Thursday reported that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan had carried out a currency intervention on April 30 by buying yen and selling dollars. The report comes after Japanese finance minister Satsuki Katayama earlier in the day signaled that the timing for "decisive" action in the market was nearing. Authorities in Japan have indicated that they may step in to offer support to the yen at around the key level of 160. Foreign exchange market participants were also digesting the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision and commentary from Wednesday. The Fed held its key policy rate steady, as widely expected. Chair Jerome Powell said the economic outlook remained highly uncertain and that the Middle East conflict had contributed to that uncertainty. "In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate," Powell said. The Fed chair added that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) felt like it was in a "good place" to either move towards rate cuts or rate hikes depending upon how the impact from surging oil prices plays out. More so than the Fed decision and Powell’s commentary, traders were focused on whether or not the central bank chief would stay on as a governor. The highest number of dissents since 1992 to the Fed’s move also hinted at differing viewpoints among policymakers. Powell is expected to be replaced by President Donald Trump’s pick, Kevin Warsh Thursday was a busy day for central banks as well, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) issuing rate decisions. The ECB kept its three key policy rates steady, saying it was "well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty" stemming from surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. It added that the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to economic growth had "intensified." "There remains a sense of calm confidence, with references to the resilience of the economy in recent quarters and longer-term inflation expectations remaining well-anchored. But there is also a sense of rising concern the longer the conflict in the Middle East continues. The BoE also held its key policy rate steady. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that inflation had already been higher than predicted in February before the Iran war and that it will likely be higher later this year as well. Elsewhere, oil prices were in focus. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, spiked to a four-year high overnight, but then erased those gains on Thursday. Still, both Brent and WTI were on track for a solid advance in April. President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on carrying out another potential military strike on Iran later today, Axios reported. The action aims to cajole Tehran back to negotiating table, with talks having stalled due to an impasse over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
• Global oil prices eased after hitting a four-year high of more than $126 a barrel earlier on Thursday on concerns the U.S.-Iran war could lead to a protracted Middle East supply disruption that could inflict deeper damage on the global economy. The oil markets have been in a period of heightened volatility since the conflict in the Middle East began in late February. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose as high as $126.41 a barrel, the peak since March 9, 2022, but settled down $4.02, or 3.41%, to $114.01. The prompt contract for June delivery expired on Thursday. The more active July contract settled higher at $110.88, up 44 cents, or 0.4% Still, both benchmarks are on track for their fourth month of gains, reflecting fears that the Iran conflict could choke global oil supplies for months to come. The drop in prices from intraday highs did not have an obvious catalyst. The decline did not look related to a specific development and reflected the heightened volatility in the market since the Iran war started, said Tamas Varga of PVM. Two large sell orders for June Brent traded earlier in the session, LSEG data showed. Other analysts said that prices can be volatile ahead of contract expiries. thers noted the retreat in U.S. dollar strength on Thursday also put downward pressure on oil Japan’s yen surged 3%, the most in a day in over three years on Thursday, following stark warnings from Tokyo officials that intervention to prop up the currency, as well as action in other markets including energy, could be imminent. The jump in the yen put the U.S. currency down, on track for its biggest one-day drop against the yen since last August. U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on Thursday on plans for a series of fresh military strikes on Iran to compel it to negotiate an end to the conflict, a U.S. official told Reuters. Iran said it would respond with "long and painful strikes" on U.S. positions if Washington renewed attacks, and also reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, complicating U.S. plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway. The price of Brent has doubled since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28 and the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is up around 90% due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits. The oil price gains risk a renewed spike in global inflation and higher pump prices in the U.S. ahead of midterm elections later this year. Oil, gas, and their refined byproducts are critical for fuelling cars, trucks and planes, powering homes and industry and producing plastics and fertilizers. Trump called a ceasefire in the war earlier this month, but also imposed a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what the International Energy Agency says is the world’s biggest oil disruption ever, have deadlocked, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demanding some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war. At least seven ships - a fraction of the usual traffic - have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed on Thursday. Three of those ships were dry bulk carriers and one container ship, with two bitumen tankers also leaving, according to Kpler ship-tracking data and satellite analysis from SynMax. Prior to the war between 125 and 140 vessels travelled the waterway daily. Closure of the strait outweighs the long-term implications of the potential waning influence of OPEC+ following the exit of the United Arab Emirates from the group, OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. The UAE said on Tuesday it would quit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after nearly 60 years as a member. Analysts say destruction of demand for oil due to the high prices may be the most likely factor to alleviate the current tight supply situation.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday interaday high of US$4646.82/oz and low of $4510.01/oz. God is down by 1.711% at US$4621/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4630-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4600-4560-4530-4500 and 4460-4420-4380-4355. Buy in between 4630-4320 with risk below 44320 targeting 4655-4700 and 4750-4790-4840-4870-4900.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday its intraday high of US73.89/oz and low of US$71.17/oz settle up by 2.65% at US$73.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 73.60-67.00, targeting 74.10-74.60 and 75.20-75.90-77.00-78.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 74.10 80.00 with a stop loss above 80.00 targeting 73.60-72.90-72.00-71.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$107.31/bbl, an intraday low of US$100.29/bbl, and settled up by 8.342% to close at US$102.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 97.30-103.80 with stop loss at 104.00, targeting 96.50-95.80-95.00-94.00 and 93.60-92.00-90.70-89.90-87.90. Buy above 96.50-89.00 with risk daily closing below 89.00, targeting 97.30-98.10-99.00-100.30 and 100.90-101.60-103.00-103.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.16545/EUR, a high of US$1.1823EUR, and settled down by 0.344% to close at US$1.1730/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1690-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made a intraday low of US$1.3453/GBP, a high of US$1.3611/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.970% to close at US$13601/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.46/USD an intraday high of 160.46/USD, and settled the day up by 0.529% at JPY160.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 160.90-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-148.00 with targets of 160.90-161.60 and 162.20-162.60-163.00with stops below 148.00.