Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar was marginally higher on Tuesday, as investors largely moved towards risky assets and shunned safe havens after Washington said its ceasefire with Tehran was holding, despite elevated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to weaken against the dollar after possible intervention from Tokyo helped spur a jump in the currency last week. The Japanese yen remained a hot topic of discussion. It was last trading at 157.89 per dollar, after having strengthened sharply by more than 2% to 156.58 per dollar last Thursday. Foreign currency market participants now widely believe that officials in Tokyo intervened last Thursday, with the aim of keeping the USD/JPY pair under 160 this year, analysts have suggested. According to sources cited by Reuters, Japanese authorities did partake in yen-buying activity for the first time in two years. Reuters added that money market data from Friday suggested that Tokyo may have shelled out as much as 5.48 trillion yen ($35 billion) in yen purchases last week Turning to the Middle East conflict, the U.S. dollar had advanced on Monday as safe haven demand was boosted after an escalation in tensions. President Donald Trump over the weekend announced a U.S. effort called "Project Freedom" to help reopen stalled shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The vital conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil has been effectively shuttered by Iran since the start of the conflict, leading to the biggest supply disruption in history. Iran responded by firing missiles upon U.S. destroyers approaching the strait, claiming to strike one. U.S. Central Command dismissed the claim, saying no ships had been struck, and instead said two U.S. merchant ships had successfully transited the strait. Separately, the United Arab Emirates said an Iranian missile and drone attack caused a fire at a massive oil trading and storage hub located in the emirate of Fujairah. The U.S. on Tuesday calmed the mood somewhat by asserting that Project Freedom was a distinct effort solely to expedite safe passage of commercial ships through the strait. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday warned that military action would not yield a resolution to the Hormuz crisis, but also said that talks in Pakistan were making headway. Away from the war, the economic calendar was fairly busy, including an update on the labor market ahead of Friday’s closely-watched April nonfarm payrolls report. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), U.S. job openings came in at 6.866 million in March, above the consensus estimate of 6.850 million but falling from February’s 6.922 million. Separately, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said U.S. economic activity in the services sector expanded in April, with the headline index coming in at 53.6, a smidge lower than the estimate of 53.7 and March’s reading of 54.0. Notably, the ISM’s gauge of prices paid by services organizations for materials and services stayed flat at 70.7 in April, significantly below expectations for a much bigger spike due the impact of surging oil prices.
• Oil prices fell for a second day on Wednesday on expectations bottled-up supply from the key Middle East producing region could resume flowing after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a possible peace deal may be reached to end the war with Iran. On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly said he would briefly pause an operation to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran, without giving details on the agreement. There was no immediate reaction from Tehran Pham added that prices remain elevated with both Brent and WTI staying above $100 per barrel as prospects for a peace deal remain uncertain, while it will take time for trade flows to be fully restored even if a deal is reached. Trump said the U.S. Navy would continue its blockade of Iranian ports. The supply loss to the global market has pushed prices higher with Brent trading last week at its highest since March 2022. Trump’s announcement came only hours after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed reporters on the effort, announced on Sunday, to escort stranded tankers through the strait. On Monday, the U.S. military said it had destroyed several Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, while guiding two vessels out of the Gulf through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz closure has drawn down global inventories as refineries try to make up the production shortfall. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for a third week, while gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Crude stocks fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the sources said. Gasoline inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels compared to a week earlier, the sources said..

Gold – XAU

Gold on Tuesday interaday high of US$4586.79/oz and low of $4513.54/oz. God is up by 0.735% at US$4556.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4655-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4600-4560-4530-4500 and 4460-4420-4380-4355. Buy in between 4600-4320 with risk below 44320 targeting 4655-4700 and 4750-4790-4840-4870-4900.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Tuesday its intraday high of US74.17/oz and low of US$72.38/oz settle up by 1.093% at US$72.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 74.60-67.00, targeting 74.10-74.60 and 75.20-75.90-77.00-78.10 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 75.10 80.00 with a stop loss above 80.00 targeting 73.60-72.90-72.00-71.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Tuesday high of US$102.47/bbl, an intraday low of US$98.69/bbl, and settled down by 2.07% to close at US$99.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 97.30-103.80 with stop loss at 104.00, targeting 96.50-95.80-95.00-94.00 and 93.60-92.00-90.70-89.90-87.90. Buy above 96.50-89.00 with risk daily closing below 89.00, targeting 97.30-98.10-99.00-100.30 and 100.90-101.60-103.00-103.80.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1675/EUR, a high of US$1.1713/EUR, and settled up by 0.0290% to close at US$1.1691/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Tuesday made a intraday low of US$1.3512/GBP, a high of US$1.3657/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0628% to close at US$1.3537/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.97USD an intraday high of 157.91/USD, and settled the day up by 0.444% at JPY157.88/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.80-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-148.00 with targets of 160.90-161.60 and 162.20-162.60-163.00with stops below 148.00.