Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday, as a better-than-expected April jobs report spurred traders to pare rate hike bets. An assertion from President Donald Trump that a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran remained intact despite new skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz also dampened safe haven demand. Currency market participants were focused on a key U.S. labor market reading on Friday and what it could mean for the future of monetary policy. Nonfarm payrolls edged up 115k last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said, better than the 65k that economists were expecting. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. While the report was closely anticipated, it comes at a time when market participants and watchers of monetary policy are more focused on inflation due to surging oil prices sparked by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Analysts noted that the April data suggested a hit to wage growth due to inflation Coming into the report, traders had priced in a small chance of the Fed even hiking interest rates this year to potentially combat the inflationary shock from the war. But odds of rate hikes were tempered after the jobs data was released, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar. Turning to the Middle East conflict, the situation in and around the critical Strait of Hormuz remained at the top of investors’ minds. The vital waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows has been effectively shuttered by Iran since the start of the conflict at the end of February, leading to the biggest supply disruption in history. The U.S. earlier this week launched and then paused an effort called "Project Freedom" to safely help commercial ships transit the strait. Meanwhile, the U.S. military since mid-April has maintained a blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline in order to pressure Tehran. On Friday, U.S. Central Command said it had fired upon and disabled two Iranian-flagged empty oil tankers attempting to pull into an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM also said it had disabled another empty tanker on Wednesday. The CENTCOM update came a day after the U.S. military said it had intercepted Iranian attacks on three American warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Fox News said the U.S. had retaliated against the attacks by striking targets on Iran’s Qeshm port and the city of Bandar Abbas in and near the strait, citing a senior U.S. official. The flare up in fighting comes at a time when Iran said it was still reviewing a new one-page, 14-point proposal that could potentially bring an end to the conflict, and that it had not yet reached a conclusion. The ruling Labour Party has suffered heavy losses, including a historic defeat in Wales after nearly three decades in power in the Welsh parliament. Meanwhile, in England, the Reform party was a big winner, picking up more than 1,200 councillors so far.cElsewhere, the euro was up 0.5% to $1.1779. The Japanese yen, which has been in the spotlight after Tokyo reportedly stepped in to intervene in the currency market, was slightly stronger against the dollar, with the USD/JPY pair down 0.1% to 156.68.
• Oil prices rallied on Monday, a day after President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to a U.S. proposal was "unacceptable," raising supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed, which kept the global market tight. Last week, both contracts recorded 6% weekly losses on hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that would allow oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. "The oil market continues to trade like a geopolitical headline machine, with prices swinging sharply based on every comment, rejection, or warning coming from Washington and Tehran," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to discuss Iran among other topics with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to U.S. officials. The world has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months and energy markets will take time to stabilise even if flows resume, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday. Another two tankers carrying crude exited the Strait of Hormuz last week with trackers switched off to avoid Iranian attacks, Kpler shipping data showed, underscoring a rising trend to sustain Middle East oil exports. They expected Brent to remain above $90 per barrel through 2026 and around $80 to $85 per barrel into 2027 as demand growth resumes and inventories are gradually rebuilt.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday interaday high of US$4732.73/oz and low of $4723.73/oz. God is up by 0.750% at US$4715.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4740-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4680-4655-4630-4600 and 4560-4530-4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4680-4320 with risk below 4320 targeting 4710-4750-4774-4790 and 4796-4835-4875-4900.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday its intraday high of US81.54/oz and low of US$76.97/oz settle up by 2.63% at US$80.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 80.15-67.00, targeting 80.50-81.00-81.60 and 82.10-83.00-83.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 80.50 with a stop loss above 80.00 targeting 73.60-72.90-72.00-71.50-71.00-70.50-69.80.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday high of US$94.75/bbl, an intraday low of US$91.66/bbl, and settled down by 2.289% to close at US$92.53/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 93.00-97.30 with stop loss at 98.00, targeting 92.60-92.00-90.70-89.90-87.90. Buy above 92.50-86.00 with risk daily closing below 86.00, targeting 93.00-93.86-94.50-95.20- and 96.00-96.60-97.30-98.10

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1720/EUR, a high of US$1.1787/EUR, and settled up by 0.533% to close at US$1.1786/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3544/GBP, a high of US$1.3635/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.654% to close at US$1.3634/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY156.01/USD an intraday high of 156.94/USD, and settled the day up by 0.397% at JPY156.91/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.80-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-148.00 with targets of 160.90-161.60 and 162.20-162.60-163.00with stops below 148.00.