Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar firmed on Wednesday, as yet more hotter-than-expected inflation data kept expectations of interest rate hikes later this year in play. Investors were also eyeing President Donald Trump’s high-stakes trip to China for any traction on the Iran war after a protracted impasse between Washington and Tehran. The focus on Wednesday was on the April producer price index (PPI) report a day after the release of April consumer price index (CPI) data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. headline PPI in April ticked up 1.4% M/M, the largest monthly advance since March 2022. On a Y/Y basis, headline PPI jumped 6%, the biggest since December 2022. Analysts and economists had predicted a climb of 0.5% M/M and 4.9% Y/Y. The PPI data follows a similarly hot CPI print, which showed a big impact of surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. The PPI readings hinted that the spike in oil was raising production costs as well With U.S. inflation clearly being affected by the oil shock emanating from the Iran war, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates on hold. Following the PPI readings, expectations of potential rate hikes later this year were maintained, as per the CME FedWatch tool The data comes at a time of transition for the Fed, with incumbent chair Jerome Powell set to end his term on Friday. He will be replaced by Trump’s pick Kevin Warsh, who on Wednesday was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the next Fed chief Away from the economic calendar, the U.S. and Iran remain at an impasse after Trump earlier this week said a ceasefire between the warring parties was on “life support” following his rejection of Tehran’s response to a U.S.-backed proposal aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The focus is now on Trump’s summit this week with counterpart Xi Jinping in China, where the two leaders are expected to discuss trade tensions, the Iran conflict, Taiwan, and global supply chains. Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday to a red carpet greeting. The president will participate in an official state arrival ceremony on Thursday, after which he will meet with Xi and sit for multiple interviews. The two leaders are expected to discuss a range of topics, including trade and Taiwan. Trump, who has brought along a clutch of big-name corporate executives like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Boeing head Kelly Ortberg on his journey, is also seen pushing for new business deals. But much of the spotlight will likely be on the Iran war. Some analysts have suggested that Trump could attempt to persuade China, a major importer of Iranian energy, to act as a guarantor of a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran, although such hopes are subdue Data from Eurostat earlier showed that seasonally adjusted gross domestic product increased 0.1% Q/Q and 0.8% Y/Y in the Eurozone in the first quarter of 2026. Both readings decelerated from 0.2% and 1.3%, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, with markets focusing on the high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to see if it will yield any positive result on the Iran war, which has significantly disrupted global oil supply. Aside from trade matters, Trump is expected to encourage China to convince Tehran to make a deal with Washington to end the conflict, but analysts doubt that Xi will be willing to push its long-time strategic partner too hard Both benchmark oil futures contracts fell on Wednesday as investors worried about possible U.S. interest rate hikes as higher fuel prices spur inflationary pressures. Brent crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel, while WTI futures fell more than $1. Trump received a grand welcome at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Thursday ahead of talks with China’s Xi Jinping set to cover their fragile trade truce, the Iran war and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy gateway, has been largely shut since the war broke out at the end of February. While Trump has said he did not think he would need China’s help to end the war, the president is nonetheless expected to ask Xi for assistance in resolving the costly and unpopular conflict. "Failure to make meaningful progress on reopening the strait could leave the US with few options other than renewed military action," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. Iran, meanwhile, appears to have tightened its control over the strait, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region. A Chinese supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months due to the U.S.-Iran war. It was only the third oil tanker to exit the strait since the war began. Global oil supply will fall short of total demand this year as the war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production and drains inventories at an unprecedented pace, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, upending its earlier outlook calling for a surplus.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$4772.95/oz and low of $4669.39/oz. God is down by 0.557% at US$4689.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4740-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4680-4655-4630-4600 and 4560-4530-4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4680-4320 with risk below 4320 targeting 4710-4750-4774-4790 and 4796-4835-4875-4900.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US89.35/oz and low of US$85.63/oz settle up by 0.460% at US$87.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 86.00-80.15, targeting 87.15-87.80-88.50-89.40 and 90.00-90.40-91.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 87.15-91.40 with a stop loss above 91.50 targeting 86.00-85.20-84.10-83.00 and 82.10-81.60-81.00-80.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$99.28/bbl, an intraday low of US$91.66/bbl, and settled up by 3.44% to close at US$96.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 97.30 with stop loss at 98.00, targeting 96.60-96.00-95.20-94.50 and 93.86-93.00-92.50-91.90. Buy above 96.60-91.00 with risk daily closing below 91.00, targeting 97.30-98.10-98.70-99.30 and 100.00-101.00-101.90-102.47.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1694/EUR, a high of US$1.1741/EUR, and settled down by 0.187% to close at US$1.1713/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1750-1.1990, targeting 1.1755-1.1690-1.1655-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1720-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1.1800 and 1.1920-1.1950-1.1990-1.2010.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3483/GBP, a high of US$1.3550/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.107% to close at US$1.3522/GBP

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY157.49/USD an intraday high of 157.91/USD, and settled the day up by 0.176% at JPY157.86/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 157.80-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 157.00-152.00 with targets of 158.00-158.70-159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.