Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar firmed on Thursday, as traders this week upped their bets for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve later this year after inflation and retail sales data. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s visit to China grabbed the spotlight, with market participants hoping for breakthroughs on trade, artificial intelligence, and possibly the Iran war. Retail sales show consumers shrugging off high gas prices, but inflation still in focushursday’s economic calendar did not have any inflation indicators, but the docket was highlighted by April retail sales. As per the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales ticked up 0.5% M/M, matching the consensus estimate but decelerating from March’s 1.6% rise. The retail sales report follows a hot consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday was followed by similarly hot producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday. Traders have reacted to the inflation and retail sales data this week by increasing their expectations for interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve later this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The reports show that spiking oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are having a notable impact on the economy, and odds of interest rate cuts have all but disappeared. Higher rates generally bode well for the dollar. Turning to geopolitics, all eyes were on Trump’s visit to China, the first by a sitting U.S. president since Trump’s own visit in 2017. Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping ended their first round of talks during a two-day summit, with Xi telling state media that negotiations around trade in particular were making progress. However, he flagged that pushback from the U.S. over Taiwan could sour relations. Trump told Fox News that Iran was also discussed. China is a major importer of oil from Iran, and some analysts and observers have suggested that the Asian nation could try and play a role in diplomacy between the warring parties. The vital waterway is a conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. It has been effectively shuttered since the start of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran at the end of February, leading to the biggest supply disruption in history. Oil prices on Thursday were muted, however, after Iran’s state media said 30 ships had been allowed to transit the strait under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy. Apart from Iran, market participants are hoping for a breakthrough in other key areas such as trade and artificial intelligence during Trump’s trip. Sentiment was helped on Thursday after a Reuters report that the U.S. had cleared about 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, citing people familiar with the matter. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is accompanying Trump to China, raising expectations that a breakthrough could be reached to unlock sales of the H200 in the country. Boeing was also a winner after Trump said Xi had agreed to buy 200 planes from the U.S. giant. After the summit began, China’s onshore yuan hovered around a three-year high and its offshore counterpart was near its strongest level in more than three years. Turning to other major currencies, the sterling slipped 0.9% to $1.3399. The decline came despite the government estimating a 0.6% increase in UK real gross domestic product (GDP) in Q1 2026, higher than expectations and a better pace than Q4 2025’s revised growth of 0.2%. The pound has remained under pressure after a disastrous set of council elections last week in the UK for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour Party.
• Oil prices gained more than 1% after President Donald Trump said he would not be much more patient with Iran and as concerns persisted over ship attacks and seizures despite Tehran saying about 30 vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Friday morning that China was being very pragmatic about involvement with Iran, and it was important to China to have the Strait of Hormuz open, in an interview with Bloomberg. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are set to meet on Friday to wrap up a two-day state visit that has featured pomp and business deals. Among deals the market was looking out for from the summit, Trump said China wants to buy oil from the United States. In incidents around the Strait of Hormuz, a ship was reported seized by Iranian personnel off the United Arab Emirates and headed for Iranian waters on Thursday, and an Indian cargo vessel carrying livestock from Africa to the UAE was sunk on Wednesday in waters off the coast of Oman. The White House said Trump and Xi had agreed on the need to keep the shipping lane open. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Wednesday evening, still far short of 140 that were typical daily before the war, but a substantial increase if confirmed.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday interaday high of US$4718.68/oz and low of $4643.95/oz. God is down by 0.8525% at US$4651.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4655-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5100, targeting 4600 and 4560-4530-4500-4460-4420. Buy in between 4600-4320 with risk below 4320 targeting 4655-4680-4710-4750 and 4774-4790-4796-4835.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US88.44/oz and low of US$83.08/oz settle down by 4.68% at US$83.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 86.00-80.15, targeting 87.15-87.80-88.50-89.40 and 90.00-90.40-91.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 67.00. Sell in between 87.15-91.40 with a stop loss above 91.50 targeting 86.00-85.20-84.10-83.00 and 82.10-81.60-81.00-80.40.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday high of US$98.10/bbl, an intraday low of US$94.96/bbl, and settled up by 0.840% to close at US$97.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 98.70-102.47 with stop loss at 102.50.00, targeting 98.00-97.30-96.60-96.60 and 96.00-95.20-94.50-93.86-93.00. Buy above 98.00-91.00 with risk daily closing below 91.00, targeting 98.70-99.30 and 100.00-101.00-101.90-102.47.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1665/EUR, a high of US$1.1720/EUR, and settled down by 0.342% to close at US$1.1668/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1690-1.1990, targeting 1.1645-1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1640-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1690-1.750-1.1790 and 1.1810-1.1840-1.1920-1.1960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Thursday made a intraday low of US$1.3394/GBP, a high of US$1.3531/GBP, and settled the day down by 0.895% to close at US$1.3399/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3490-1.3150 with a target of 1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3570-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Thursday made an intra‐day low of JPY157.22/USD an intraday high of 158.40/USD, and settled the day up by 0.345% at JPY158.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 158.80-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 159.40-158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 158.00-152.00 with targets of 158.70-159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.