Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday as a global bond sell-off eased up significantly. Investors also remained cautious amid little signs of progress in U.S. and Iran diplomacy. The index is coming off its best weekly performance in over nine months, buoyed by traders raising their expectations for interest rate hikes across the world. A steep global bond sell-off built momentum last week and finally peaked on Friday, leading to a host of "highest ever" milestones for benchmark instruments such as the the United Kingdom’s 30-year gilt yields, Japan’s 30-year government bond yield, the U.S. 30-year yield and the U.S. 10-year yield. The sell-off was sparked by a host of inflation data last week on major economies, including the U.S. The readings showed that surging oil prices due to the Iran war and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz were having a big impact on consumer and producer prices. Markets responded by raising their expectations for interest rate hikes by global central banks. The bleeding in the bond market eased up on Monday, with the U.S. 10-year yield last up nearly 1 basis point to 4.608% and the 30-year yield little changed at 5.127%. As per the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate hike odds on Monday remained largely unchanged from last week, with chances of a hike seen at every remaining monetary policy committee meeting this year. The Federal Reserve is currently in transition mode, with incoming chair Kevin Warsh expected to sworn in on Friday by President Donald Trump, according to Reuters, citing a White House official. Turning to the Middle East conflict, Trump on Truth Social said he had ordered the U.S. military to not go ahead with a scheduled attack on Iran on Tuesday after being requested by leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Trump said "serious negotiations" were "now taking place" and that the leaders believed a peace deal would be made which would be "very acceptable " to all parties. Trump’s comments came after fresh tensions over the weekend, following a drone strike that hit a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia separately said it had intercepted three drones from Iraq, which in turn said it was investigating the incident. Media reports also said the U.S. and Iran had exchanged amended proposals to try and end hostilities, but rejected the new drafts The two parties remain at odds over several points. Washington wants Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions, hand over all enriched uranium, and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. Iran, for its part, wants an end to fighting on all fronts, compensation for war damages, and an end to the U.S. naval blockade of its ports and coastline. Iran is also at odds with the demand to end its nuclear activities, one of the biggest sticking points between the warring nations. Turning to other major currencies, focus was on a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 countries in France, taking place on Monday and Tuesday. The purpose of the meeting is to largely discuss the macroeconomic impact of the Middle East conflict. The Japanese yen weakened slightly, with the USD/JPY pair up 0.1% to 158.85. The Asian nation’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, spoke to reporters after the first day of the G7 meeting, saying she had noted speculative moves in financial markets and that volatility in oil prices were having an effect.
• Oil prices fell 2% on Tuesday in early Asian trade after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had paused a planned attack on Iran to allow for negotiations to end the war in the Middle East In the previous session, the benchmarks hit their highest levels since May 5 and April 30, respectively. The June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, while the most active July contract fell $1.63 or 1.6% to $102.75 per barrel. Trump said on Monday there was a "very good chance" the U.S. could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, hours after announcing the pause in military action to allow talks. The Middle East conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries about a fifth of the global supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas, raising concerns over supply disruptions Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on Monday that Tehran’s position had been conveyed to the U.S. via Pakistan but provided no further detail A Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Islamabad had relayed a new proposal between the two sides but noted slow progress. Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Washington had agreed to waive sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports during negotiations, but a U.S. official denied the claim. Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a sanctions waiver by 30 days to allow "energy-vulnerable" countries to continue purchasing Russian seaborne oil. In the U.S., a record 9.9 million barrels were drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, Energy Department data showed, bringing stockpiles down to about 374 million barrels, the lowest point since July 2024. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.4 million barrels in the week that ended on May 15. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to be released on May 20.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$4584.20/oz and low of $4480.24/oz. God is up by 0.774% at US$4566.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4555-5020 keeping stop loss closing above 5020, targeting 4530-4500-4482-4460 and 4420-4400-4380-4364. Buy in between 4530-4320 with risk below 4320 targeting 4560-4590-4610-4655 and 4680-4710-4750-4774.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US8.78.18/oz and low of US$73.85/oz settle down by 3.21% at US$77.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between, 76.00-72.00 targeting 76.75-77.20-78.00 and 79.10-79.90-80.40-81.00 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 82.00. Sell in between 76.75-82.15 with a stop loss above 83.00 targeting 76.00-75.20-74.50-73.85-73.00 and 72.6-72.00

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$104.71/bbl, an intraday low of US$98.21/bbl, and settled down by 0.296% to close at US$102.03/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 98.70-102.47 with stop loss at 102.50.00, targeting 98.00-97.30-96.60-96.60 and 96.00-95.20-94.50-93.86-93.00. Buy above 98.00-91.00 with risk daily closing below 91.00, targeting 98.70-99.30 and 100.00-101.00-101.90-102.47.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1607/EUR, a high of US$1.1660/EUR, and settled down by 0.327% to close at US$1.1655/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1650-1.1990, targeting 1.1600 and 1.1565-1.1500-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1610-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1690-1.750-1.1790 and 1.1810-1.1840-1.1920-1.1960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made a intraday low of US$1.3301/GBP, a high of US$1.3448/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.848% to close at US$1.3431/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3400-1.3150 with a target of 1.3436-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3500-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY158.51/USD an intraday high of 159.07/USD, and settled the day up by 0.1822% at JPY158.83/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 159.40-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 158.00-152.00 with targets of 159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.