Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar was marginally weaker on Monday, as risk sentiment outweighed safe haven demand after Iran and Israel halted strikes against each other following an appeal for calm from President Donald Trump. It is also a big week for currency market participants as key U.S. consumer and producer inflation data will arrive, potentially impacting central bank interest rate actions. More cues on monetary policy eyed after blowout jobs report The dollar index is coming off its best weekly advance since mid-March. A majority of that climb was driven by traders on Friday raising their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes after the May U.S. nonfarm payrolls report smashed past expectations. The data, coming on the heels of other positive indicators on the labor market earlier in the week, suggested that the maximum employment part of the Fed’s dual mandate was under control and that the inflationary side was undoubtedly a bigger concern. A clearer picture of the impact of surging oil prices on Americans will come this week in the form of the U.S. consumer price index and producer price index reports due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. If the readings come in hotter than anticipated, odds of Fed interest rate hikes could get another boost. Higher rate environments generally tend to strengthen the dollar Turning to the Middle East, over the weekend there was a rapid rise in tensions after Iran and Israel attacked each other with strikes for the first time since a shaky ceasefire between all warring parties took effect in April. Media reports said the latest exchange began with an Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut. Israel had been fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, although the conflict had not escalated beyond low-key skirmishes until this weekend. Tehran then responded with attacks of its own, sparking a retaliation from Israel that its military says hit targets in central and western Iran. President Trump took to his Truth Social service to publicly try and defuse the situation, calling upon Israel and Iran to stop "shooting" and asserting that both sides were "looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE!" The mood quickly improved, however, after Iran’s state media said Iran’s armed forces had announced the end of military operations against Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a televised statement said that Israel will halt its attacks on Iran "for now," vowing to respond with "great force" if Tehran attacks the Jewish state again. Looking at other major currencies, the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the dollar on Monday, but remained above 160, a key level that has previously sparked currency intervention measures by Tokyo. Earlier, Cabinet Office data showed Japan’s Q1 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual pace of 1.8%, worse than the prior estimate of 2.1% but better than the consensus estimate of an increase of 1.3%.
• Gold prices were little changed in Asian trade on Tuesday, hovering near an 11-week low, as a halt in hostilities between Iran and Israel eased some inflation concerns, while investors awaited key U.S. CPI data later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. In the previous session, the yellow metal fell to its lowest since March 23 but later pared losses to end largely flat. Bullion had come under heavy pressure following stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data released last week, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Market sentiment improved after Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks following a renewed flare-up in tensions over the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that the U.S. was close to declaring a "total victory" in the Iran war, and that oil prices were likely to fall sharply. Oil prices dipped on Tuesday after surging in the previous session amid fresh hostilities, although traders remained cautious over the durability of the truce. Despite gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset, the metal has struggled during much of the Gulf conflict. The war's impact on crude oil markets has created an unusual dynamic for bullion Higher oil prices have fueled concerns that energy-driven inflation could remain elevated, prompting investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and, in some cases, price in the possibility of further policy tightening. This has pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. The focus now turns to upcoming U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices figures on Thursday, which could help determine whether the recent rebound in oil prices is feeding into broader price pressures. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, potentially weighing further on bullion. Recent market pricing has shifted sharply following robust U.S. payrolls figures, with investors now pricing in at least one Fed rate hike this year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$4353.32/oz and low of $4268.44/oz. God is by % at US$4329.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4350-4665 keeping stop loss closing above 4665, targeting 4340-4315-4300-4254 and 4200-4188-4150-4130. Buy in between 4482-4200 with risk below 4200 targeting 4500-4565-4590 and 4610-4655-4680.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US68.91/oz and low of US$66.15/oz settle down by 0.513% at US$68.14/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 67.70-64.00 targeting 68.00-68.90-70.40-70.85 and 71.40-72.60-73.0-74.50-75.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 64.00. Sell in between 68.00-76.00 with a stop loss above 76.00 targeting 67.70-67.00-66.15-65.50 and 64.90-64.00-63.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$93.46/bbl, an intraday low of US$88.90/bbl, and settled down by 1.678% to close at US$89.69/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 92.00-103.47 with stop loss at 104.00 targeting 90.95-89.90-89.00 and 87.55-86.90-86.00-85.10. Buy above 91.00-84.00 with risk daily closing below 84.00, targeting 93.30-93.80 and 95.30-96.00-96.60-97.30-98.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1499/EUR, a high of US$1.1541/EUR, and settled up by 0.205% to close at US$1.1531/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1565-1.1990, targeting 1.1520-1.1485-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1530-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1565-1.1590-1.1630-1.1690-1.1750 and 1.1790-1.1840-1.1920-1.1960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3305/GBP, a high of US$1.3368/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.0581% to close at US$1.3337/GBP

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3350-1.3150 with a target of 1.3436-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.833/USD an intraday high of 160.38/USD, and settled the day up by 0.324% at JPY160.16/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 160.70-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-152.00 with targets of 159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.