Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar on Wednesday ticked up slightly in a seesaw session, as a boost to safe haven demand was countered by positive interest rate cues sparked by a marginally soft to in-line consumer inflation report Currency market participants and watchers of monetary policy keenly perused the May U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Government data showed headline CPI rose 0.5% M/M in May, and 4.2% on a Y/Y basis, with both figures matching economists’ expectations. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, gained 0.2% M/M in May and 2.9% Y/Y, compared to estimates of growth of 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Both headline and core CPI decelerated from April on a M/M basis. While the annual headline CPI increase was the highest since April 2023, over 60% of that increase was due to energy. In fact, spiking energy and gasoline prices driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict showed an outsized impact in the report. Energy prices surged 23.5% Y/Y in May, while gasoline soared 40.5%. These were the highest readings since August 2022 and July 2022, respectively. Traders took positive cues from the milder core indicators. Notably, core goods inflation, or the prices paid by consumers for commodities excluding food and energy, slipped 0.1% on a M/M basis. The lack of a major impact on core inflation also led to traders slightly paring their expectations for Fed interest rate hikes this year and marginally adding to their odds for a quarter-point rate cut instead, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Coming into the CPI report, the odds of Fed rate hikes had increased significantly, especially after strong labor market data last week. Higher interest rate environments generally strengthen the greenback. "Gasoline prices are down so far in June from May, which should help the next CPI report if sustained. The effect of tariffs on the CPI is similarly a one-off shock, which may have already peaked," he said. "For the Fed, the big picture is that inflation is considerably above target. Much of its overshoot can be attributed to shocks from the Iran War and tariffs. Even so, the Fed will still be uneasy about inflation since it has been over target for half a decade, and since labor intensive service prices continue to put upward pressure on core inflation. This is visible in the pickup in Supercore CPI in May to the highest since early 2025," Adams added. The Fed is scheduled to deliver its first interest rate decision under new chair Kevin Warsh’s leadership next week. Turning away from the economic calendar, hopes for a peace deal to end hostilities in the Middle East took a big hit on Wednesday after the U.S. military launched "self-defense" strikes against Iran, following a promise by Trump that Washington would respond to the shooting down of an American helicopter that was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, for its part, has not claimed responsibility for the downing of the helicopter. The president then on Thursday morning said Iran had taken too long to negotiate a peace deal and "will have to pay the price." He reiterated that "much of" Iran’s military had been eradicated by a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that is now in its fourth month, claiming that the "Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!!" Attention is now on the euro, which was last flat, a day ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision. Europe’s governing bank is expected to hike rates. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was weaker, remaining above 160, a key level that has previously sparked currency intervention measures by Tokyo. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to raise rates at its policy meeting next week, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level in roughly three decades. Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to miss the meeting after being hospitalized for medical treatment earlier on Wednesday. Separately, data showed Japan’s producer prices rose 6.3% in May from a year earlier, exceeding forecasts and reinforcing expectations that the BoJ could continue normalizing monetary policy.
• Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Tehran declared the critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, closed after the U.S. launched additional strikes against Iran and as President Donald Trump vowed even more attacks if no peace deal is secured. Iran’s top joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, including oil tankers and commercial ships, saying any vessel attempting passage will be shot at The renewed escalation in fighting prompted oil prices to rally in early morning trading, they said. On Wednesday, the U.S. military said on X that commercial ships continue to transit in and out of the strait. It also said no U.S. warships have been struck in the strait, after Iran’s state media reported U.S. ships near the waterway were targeted by missiles and drones. U.S. forces began launching additional strikes against multiple targets in Iran at 5:15 p.m. EDT (21:15 GMT), the latest in an escalating exchange of attacks that threaten to reignite a full-scale war, which was paused in early April when the two sides agreed to a fragile ceasefire. Trump told Fox News reporter Trey Yingst on Wednesday evening that the strikes would stop shortly but that he would "bomb the shit out of them" if Iran’s leaders did not sign an agreement with the U.S. immediately. Iran’s months-long blockade of the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, has kept oil prices elevated. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels in the week ended June 5, the EIA said on Wednesday, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 4 million-barrel draw. U.S. crude inventories, including those from strategic reserves, have fallen by 79 million barrels since the Iran war began on February 28, as the top global producer moved to plug supply gaps after the strait was effectively shut. Underscoring the squeeze, OPEC output in May slid to its lowest level in over two decades, a Reuters survey showed, as a U.S. naval blockade curbed Iran’s exports and Tehran’s effective closure of the strategic waterway slashed shipments from other Gulf producers.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday interaday high of US$4257.31/oz and low of $4066.91/oz. God is down by 4.33% at US$4071.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4085-4300 keeping stop loss closing above 4300, targeting 4071-4050-4023-4000 and 3990-3979-3964. Buy in between 4071-3964 with risk below 3964 targeting 4085-4100-4135-4180 and 4200-4254-4300-4315.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Wednesday its intraday high of US65.73/oz and low of US$63.29/oz settle down by 2.07% at US$63.37/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 63.00-60.00 targeting 64.90-65.50-66.15-67.00 and 67.70-68.00-68.90-69.70 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 64.00. Sell in between 64.00-70.00 with a stop loss above 70.00 targeting 64.00-63.30-62.50 and 61.50-60.90-60.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday high of US$90.36/bbl, an intraday low of US$86.11/bbl, and settled up by 2.43% to close at US$90.23/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 89.00-96.00 with stop loss at 96.00 targeting 86.90-86.00-85.10-84.00 and 83.20-82.40. Buy above 87.00-82.00 with risk daily closing below 82.00, targeting 88.00-89.00-89.90-90.94 and 92.00-93.30-93.80-94.60-95.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1531/EUR, a high of US$1.1572/EUR, and settled down by 0.059% to close at US$1.1534/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1565-1.1990, targeting 1.1520-1.1485-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1530-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1565-1.1590-1.1630-1.1690-1.1750 and 1.1790-1.1840-1.1920-1.1960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made a intraday low of US$1.3364/GBP, a high of US$1.3422/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.085% to close at US$1.3366/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3350-1.3150 with a target of 1.3436-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3390-1.3820 with targets at 1.3490-1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY158.25/USD an intraday high of 159.30/USD, and settled the day up by 0.181% at JPY159.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 160.70-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-152.00 with targets of 159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.