Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar eased on Monday after Washington and Iran said they had reached an interim peace deal. The news dented safe-haven demand and boosted risk sentiment, sending equities higher and oil prices and Treasury yields lower. The U.S. and Iran have reached an interim peace deal which would end a war that has dragged on for more than three months, threatening the global economy in the process. President Donald Trump on Sunday evening said the deal was "complete" and that he had "fully" authorized the "toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz" and at the same time approved the "immediate removal" of an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) is due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, Pakistan said early on Monday. The Asian nation has served as the chief mediator between the U.S. and Iran during the conflict. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the two nations had "declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts." That includes Lebanon, Sharif said. Concerns had surrounded the outlook for the deal after U.S.-allied Israel carried out attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon over the weekend, leading to a stern rebuke of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by Trump. Iran’s state media said foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that a meeting to sign the document will "likely take place" on Friday. The final text of the MoU is awaited. Aside from the unblocking of the strait and the removal of the blockade, the U.S. and Iran have not offered specific details. Iran’s state media added that, as per the MoU, Washington would be obliged to lift all sanctions on Iran, citing Baqaei. Both sides have said that further negotiations to discuss sticking points such as Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions, would be held over the following 60 days after the signing of the deal. Trump on Monday, on a visit to France, told reporters that Iran had "fully agreed" to never have a nuclear weapon, while Reuters said Iran had agreed to refrain from further uranium enrichment or the expansion of its nuclear facilities, citing a senior Iranian official. Trump told reporters that the text of the MoU would be released "pretty soon...sometime after Friday." The Fed’s monetary policy committee will be issuing its first rate decision under the leadership of new chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. With labor market data and inflation data over the last two weeks coming in strong, the central bank is widely anticipated to leave its key policy rate steady. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank last week became the first major reserve bank to hike rates, citing the Iran-linked energy shock.Turning to other major currencies, a slew of central banks are expected to issue interest rate decisions this week, including the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE).
• Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday on concerns about the lack of details in a preliminary agreement ending the war between the U.S. and Iran and the realization the resumption of supply through the key Strait of Hormuz may take longer than thought. On Monday, oil prices fell by nearly 5% to their lowest close since March 4 after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which had closed the Strait of Hormuz that typically carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the conflict and caused about 14 million barrels per day of output to be shut in. Despite the optimism following the announcement, the full details of the memorandum have not been released publicly and a permanent truce has not been worked out. Early indications are the agreement would reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to tackle difficult issues like the future of Iran’s nuclear program. On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was an "important step" toward stopping the fighting but a final agreement for a lasting truce "has yet to take shape. A senior Iranian official said on Monday pending a final agreement Iran would freeze its nuclear activity, refraining from further uranium enrichment or the expansion of nuclear facilities. Even with the current agreement, it remains unclear how quickly the curtailed supply will be able to return to the market.
• Gold prices were little changed in Asian trade on Tuesday, as investors awaited further details of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement while turning their attention to a busy week of central bank meetings led by the Federal Reserve Bullion had jumped more than 2% on Monday after Washington and Tehran announced a preliminary agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation concerns and weighing on the U.S. dollar. The peace framework, which is expected to be formally signed later this week, has fueled a sharp decline in oil prices and improved risk sentiment across global markets. Brent crude fell to three-month lows on Monday, while global equities rallied on expectations that lower energy costs could reduce inflationary pressures. Markets are now focused on the timing of the agreement's implementation as both countries said a permanent truce is yet to be negotiated. Market attention is now turning to a series of major central bank decisions, including the Bank of Japan meeting on Tuesday, followed by policy announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England later this week. The BOJ is widely expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high, while investors expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its June 16-17 meeting. Traders will closely watch comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for clues on the future path of U.S. rates. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Recent U.S. inflation data and lingering concerns over price pressures have led investors to scale back expectations for rate cuts this year.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday interaday high of US$4369.29/oz and low of $4265.63/oz. God is up by 0.047% at US$4308.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On the daily charts, gold trades higher than 20DMA (2197). If it drops below this level, it could lead to 2,100. The MACD is currently above the zero line and the histograms are showing an increasing trend, indicating that there may be upward movement in the coming sessions. The RSI is currently at 83.04, which is in the overbought region, suggesting there may be selling pressure in the next 2 to 3 sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is also in the overbought territory but has given a positive crossover, indicating a bullish stance for intraday trades, but rebound in expected in all the overbought indicators.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 4335-4460 keeping stop loss closing above 4500, targeting 4300-4270-4254-4200 and 4180-4150-4135-4100-4085. Buy in between 4300-4071 with risk below 3964 targeting 4335-4360-4390-4400 and 4415-4430-4450-4460-4485.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday its intraday high of US71.31/oz and low of US$68.94/oz settle up by 1.411% at US$69.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20MA (25.05), breakage above will lead to 23.73. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are increasing trend, bringing a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the oversold region, indicating a sell signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 69.70-63.00 targeting 70.95-71.50-72.00-72.45 and 72.90-73.50-73.90-74.70-75.45 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 63.00. Sell in between 70.00-75.45 with a stop loss above 75.45 targeting 69.70-68.90-68.00-67.70 and 67.00-66.15-65.50-64.90.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday high of US$80.36/bbl, an intraday low of US$78.47/bbl, and settled down by 0.288% to close at US$79.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 75.37, a support level, and breakage above will call for 77.48. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought region, giving a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region, more upsides can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 80.00-86.90 with stop loss at 87.00 targeting 78.85-78.00-771.0-76.50-75.90 and 75.00-74.10-73.50-72.54 Buy above 78.85-72.54 with risk daily closing below 72.00, targeting 80.00-80.90-81.70-82.40-83.20 and 84.00-85.10-86.00-86.90.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1573/EUR, a high of US$1.1621/EUR, and settled up by 0.120% to close at US$1.1588/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.1661), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.1695. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode, bringing a bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory, giving negative crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.1630-1.1990, targeting 1.1520-1.1485-1.1450-1.1410 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1990. Buy above 1.1570-1.1450 with risk below 1.1450 targeting 1.1590-1.1630-1.1690-1.1750 and 1.1790-1.1840-1.1920-1.1960.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made a intraday low of US$1.3395/GBP, a high of US$1.3460/GBP, and settled the day up by 0.040% to close at US$1.3410/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2674) is becoming a support level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on an RSI basis. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm a bullish stance. MACD is above the zero line, but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy between 1.3390-1.3150 with a target of 1.3436-1.3500-1.3570 and 1.3600-1.3640-1.3690-1.3725 with a stop loss closing below 1.3150. Sell in between 1.3490-1.3820 with targets at 1.3440-1.3395-1.3325-1.3275 and 1.3250-1.3190-1.3150 with a stop loss of 1.3900.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY159.72/USD an intraday high of 160.38/USD, and settled the day up by 0.144% at JPY160.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (152.35), major support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 160.70-163.10 with risk above 163.10 targeting 158.70-158.10-157.00 and 156.60-153.00-152.65-152.10. Long positions above 160.00-152.00 with targets of 159.40-160.00 and 160.90-161.60-162.20-162.60 with stops below 148.00.